The state for the next 2 to 6 weeks: is the setup for or against this area right now. Scored from trend, relative strength, breadth, momentum quality, liquidity and positioning. marks the tactical state on every board, scale and tile.
Structural
The state for the next 3 to 9 months: is the longer trend for or against this area. Scored from trend, relative strength, breadth and liquidity over longer windows. marks the structural state on every board, scale and tile.
State
A number from −100 to +100, computed deterministically from prices, breadth, liquidity and positioning. Read in five bands. As it appears — the figure, its band, the week's change: −24Balanced−12
Balanced
A state inside ±24. It makes no call: the record counts only states at or beyond ±25.
Band
Strong Risk-On (+60 to +100), Risk-On (+25 to +59), Balanced (−24 to +24), Risk-Off (−59 to −25), Strong Risk-Off (−100 to −60). The scale every state is read on, its five bands labeled:
Strong Risk-Off
Risk-Off
Balanced
Risk-On
Strong Risk-On
Weekly change
The state this Sunday minus the state computed the same way one week earlier, from the same data. Deterministic only; the issue’s adjustment is not in it. Up, down or unchanged, always with a glyph and a sign: +4−30
Percentile
Where this week’s state sits among the prior weeks of its own history: the 23rd percentile means 77% of prior weeks read higher.
Conviction
The share of a horizon’s weight, among the area’s own components, sitting on the state’s side, 0 to 100. Liquidity and positioning are read once for the whole market, so only the S&P 500’s own conviction counts them. A −40 with conviction 100 is every component pointing down; a −40 with conviction 55 is a split board. Wherever it appears, it is drawn as a small indigo ring filled to the value, beside the figure. So 73 reads 73 and 100 a board in full agreement.
Trend
Price against its own averages: the 50-day and the 20-day versus the 50-day for the tactical state; the 200-day and the 200-day’s slope over a month for the structural one.
Relative strength
The area’s 1- and 3-month return minus SPY’s (6-month for the structural state). For the S&P 500 itself, its own return.
Breadth
The share of members above their 50-day average (tactical) or 200-day average (structural): the S&P 500’s constituents for the index itself, the sector’s constituents for a sector, the basket for an AI layer.
Momentum quality
Realized volatility over 20 days minus 60 days — rising volatility counts against — and the drawdown from the 20-day high. Tactical only.
Liquidity
Credit appetite (high-yield minus investment-grade bonds), the dollar inverted and long bonds, over 1 and 3 months. Market-level: every area inherits the same reading.
Positioning
CFTC Traders in Financial Futures: leveraged funds’ net position in S&P 500 futures as a share of open interest, sign reversed — crowded longs count against, crowded shorts for. Market-level, tactical only.
The crowd
The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey: the share of individual investors bullish, neutral and bearish for the week to Wednesday, published Thursday, with the bull–bear spread beside AAII’s own long-run average. Displayed beside the positioning, never a score input; bears far above their average are contrarian support, bulls far above theirs contrarian risk, a reading near the averages says little.
Adjusted
An issue may move a state by at most ±10 points for an event the deterministic score cannot have seen yet, with a cited, dated source. The deterministic number and the adjustment are both shown.
Trigger
A condition on the area’s own board — a state, a weekly change or a component crossing a level — set in the issue and read against next Sunday’s deterministic board in code, before a word is written.
Basket
An AI layer’s members, equal-weight; a member joins on its first trading day. The universe is versioned, and an issue keeps the version it was produced on.
The record
Every state at or beyond ±25 is a call, scored later against the equal-weight S&P 500 (the S&P 500 itself against T-bills): tactical after 4 weeks, structural after 13 and 26. Rows are written once and never rewritten.