Methodology
States are computed from prices, breadth, liquidity and positioning, deterministically.
One scale, five bands
Tactical
The state for the next 2 to 6 weeks: is the setup for or against this area right now. Scored from trend, relative strength, breadth, momentum quality, liquidity and positioning.
Structural
The state for the next 3 to 9 months: is the longer trend for or against this area. Scored from trend, relative strength, breadth and liquidity over longer windows.
Beside every state sits its conviction, the share of the horizon's weight on the state's side, drawn as an indigo ring filled to the value: 73 is a state with most of its components agreeing, 100 one with every component on its side.
How a state is computed
Each area has a price series — the ETF for a sector, SPY for the market, an equal-weight basket for an AI layer — and every sub-metric is read against its own trailing distribution over up to 500 trading days, so “−3% from the 50-day” is scored as how unusual that is for this area. A component is the mean of its sub-metrics; a horizon is the weighted sum of its components.
The report explains the numbers and may adjust an area by at most ±10 with a cited, dated source, shown where it did. Triggers are read against next Sunday’s deterministic board in code.
Each issue names the methodology and universe version it was computed on, and when it was published, under its sources.