After the close

Tuesday October 20

Tuesday's tape leaned on the hardware layers named in Sunday's "Capex financing tightens" risk: Semiconductors & Equipment −2.4% and Networking & Optics −2.1% against the equal-weight S&P 500, with AI & Hyperscalers −1.5%, while the S&P 500 added +0.3%.Even so, two Risk-On triggers crossed.AI & Hyperscalers tactical momentum went from −7 to +4, and the market's structural state recovered from −27 to −19, back into Balanced.Data Centers & Neoclouds sits 1 point from its Risk-On line.Among the calls, Power's Risk-Off is ahead by 3.83 points since Sunday, while Memory & Storage's is behind by 3.82 points.

Sunday's issue of October 18

Since Sunday

S&P 500+0.34% on Tuesday+0.76%
Triggers crossed2 Risk-On, 0 Risk-Off2 / 18Calls aheadTactical calls5 / 8Nearest open triggerData Centers & Neoclouds, Risk-On1 pt away

Sunday's watch list

Throughout US Treasury par yield curve The 10-year fell 15 bp to 5.09% in the week to 16 Oct; whether it holds decides if the rate-sensitive lifts in utilities and real estate extend.
Throughout Q3 earnings season continues Expected blended growth near 29.5% is the story behind a tape with structural breadth at −49.
Thu US weekly initial jobless claims A labour read ahead of the FOMC, with a market still weighing a hike after 3.7% CPI.
Fri CFTC Commitments of Traders Funds are net short 21.1% against a 17.2% mean; a cover would cut the +39 positioning support across every area.
Wed 28 Oct FOMC decision at the end of the 27-28 October meeting Warsh gave no signal; a hike would hit liquidity, already −32 tactical and −26 structural across the board.

Also published Tuesday

  • BLS: latest major economic indicators Consumer Price Index (CPI) +0.6% in Sep 2026; Unemployment Rate 4.2% in Sep 2026; Payroll Employment +29,000(p) in Sep 2026; Average Hourly Earnings +$0.05(p) in Sep 2026; Producer Price Index - Final Demand +1.3%(p) in Sep 2026; Productivity +1.4% in 2nd Qtr of 2026; U.S. Import Price Index +1.1% in Sep 2026. As published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 2026-10-20.
  • Census Bureau: New Residential Construction Privately-owned housing starts in September 2026 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,221,000. This is 5.2 percent (+/- 11.8%)* below the revised August 2026 estimate of 1,288,000. September 2026: −5.2* % Change August 2026 (r): −5.9* % Change

Biggest moves

Sectors Health Care led, +1.22% against the equal-weight S&P 500 · Technology lagged, −1.43%

S&P 500

503 names
NameTueSince Sun
Equifax EFX · Industrials+11.33%+9.48%
Hasbro HAS · Consumer Discretionary+11.20%+10.90%
Moderna MRNA · Health Care+6.69%+11.04%
3M MMM · Industrials+5.78%+4.02%
Gartner IT · Technology+5.74%+6.96%
General Motors GM · Consumer Discretionary−6.84%−8.18%
DaVita DVA · Health Care−6.23%−6.39%
Genuine Parts GPC · Consumer Discretionary−5.12%−7.79%
Comfort Systems USA FIX · Industrials−4.57%−2.92%
Howmet Aerospace HWM · Industrials−3.82%−4.22%

The chain

72 names
NameTueSince Sun
MongoDB MDB · AI Software+5.02%+8.48%
Western Digital WDC · Memory & Storage+3.44%+9.73%
SERVICENOW NOW · AI Software+2.88%+5.33%
UiPath PATH · AI Software+2.36%+4.51%
Seagate Technology Holdings PLC Ordinary Shares (Ireland) STX · Memory & Storage+2.17%+5.65%
IREN IREN · Data Centers & Neoclouds−4.00%−1.37%
Quanta Services PWR · Power−3.62%−5.68%
Lam Research LRCX · Semiconductors & Equipment−3.21%−0.19%
Arm Holdings ARM · Compute (accelerators)−3.07%−2.96%
Onto Innovation ONTO · Semiconductors & Equipment−2.94%−0.49%

Triggers

Sunday's conditions on Tuesday's closes
  • Risk-On AI AI & Hyperscalers tactical momentum quality ≥ 0 · Tue +3.8 Crossed
  • Risk-On Market S&P 500 structural ≥ −20 · Tue −19 Crossed
  • Risk-On AI Data Centers & Neoclouds structural ≥ −59 · Tue −60 1 pt away closer
  • Risk-Off AI Compute (accelerators) structural ≤ −21 · Tue −19 2 pts away closer
  • Risk-Off AI Power structural ≤ −50 · Tue −48 2 pts away closer
  • Risk-Off AI Semiconductors & Equipment structural ≤ −60 · Tue −56 4 pts away further

The calls since Sunday

Tactical, against the equal-weight S&P 500

Ahead 5

  • Risk-OffNetworking & Optics−0.48%
  • Risk-OffSemiconductors & Equipment−0.23%
  • Risk-OffIndustrials−1.40%
  • Risk-OffReal Estate−0.30%
  • Risk-OffPower−3.83%

Behind 3

  • Risk-OffData Centers & Neoclouds+0.47%
  • Risk-OffMemory & Storage+3.82%
  • Risk-OffCompute (accelerators)+0.70%

No new calls are made during the week.

Next issue

Sunday, October 25

Market opens

Wednesday, October 21 · 9:30 AM–4:00 PM New York time

Every area

Relative: each area against the equal-weight S&P 500; the S&P 500 against T-bills. Sunday's states as published.
TuesdaySince SundaySunday's states
AreaReturnRelativeReturnRelativeAbove 50-dayTacticalStructural
S&P 500 vs T-bills+0.34%+0.32%+0.76%+0.75%52% (+7 pp)−11 Balanced−27 Risk-Off
Health Care +2.37%+1.22%+1.76%+0.93%75% (+3 pp)+20 Balanced+37 Risk-On
Real Estate +1.70%+0.55%+0.52%−0.30%28% (+3 pp)−28 Risk-Off−36 Risk-Off
Utilities +1.26%+0.10%−0.78%−1.61%71% (0 pp)−7 Balanced−54 Risk-Off
Financials +1.20%+0.05%+0.36%−0.47%42% (+3 pp)−17 Balanced−4 Balanced
Consumer Discretionary +0.91%−0.24%+2.70%+1.88%51% (+11 pp)−6 Balanced−46 Risk-Off
Consumer Staples +0.62%−0.53%+0.15%−0.68%67% (−3 pp)+18 Balanced+19 Balanced
Materials +0.55%−0.60%+0.61%−0.22%63% (+17 pp)−6 Balanced−17 Balanced
Energy +0.25%−0.90%−0.40%−1.22%76% (0 pp)+18 Balanced+9 Balanced
Communication Services +0.09%−1.06%−0.12%−0.94%38% (+19 pp)−20 Balanced−40 Risk-Off
Industrials +0.07%−1.08%−0.57%−1.40%39% (+10 pp)−30 Risk-Off−65 Strong Risk-Off
Technology −0.28%−1.43%+1.07%+0.25%49% (+13 pp)−18 Balanced−7 Balanced
AI Software AI+1.27%+0.12%+3.67%+2.84%5 of 10−6 Balanced+12 Balanced
Memory & Storage AI+0.51%−0.64%+4.65%+3.82%1 of 7−36 Risk-Off−55 Risk-Off
Data Centers & Neoclouds AI−0.06%−1.21%+1.29%+0.47%0 of 10−39 Risk-Off−61 Strong Risk-Off
Compute (accelerators) AI−0.25%−1.40%+1.53%+0.70%0 of 6−25 Risk-Off−10 Balanced
AI & Hyperscalers AI−0.35%−1.51%+1.13%+0.30%3 of 5−2 Balanced−16 Balanced
Networking & Optics AI−0.97%−2.12%+0.34%−0.48%0 of 10−37 Risk-Off−70 Strong Risk-Off
Power AI−1.09%−2.24%−3.00%−3.83%2 of 11−28 Risk-Off−43 Risk-Off
Semiconductors & Equipment AI−1.22%−2.37%+0.60%−0.23%0 of 13−34 Risk-Off−58 Risk-Off

Liquidity and rates

  • Credit appetite −0.33% on Tuesday · +0.14% since Sunday high yield minus investment grade
  • Dollar −0.34% on Tuesday · −0.07% since Sunday
  • Long bonds +0.84% on Tuesday · +0.10% since Sunday
  • Treasury curve 10-year 5.12% (−3 bp) · 2-year 4.79% (+2 bp) · 3-month 4.26% (−1 bp) · 2s10s +33 bp par yields at the 2026-10-20 close; since Sunday +3 bp / +5 bp / 0 bp
  • Positioning CFTC Traders in Financial Futures, S&P 500 consolidated, report dated Tue, Oct 13 (published Fri, Oct 16): leveraged funds net short 21.1% of open interest, from net short 21.3% the week before. It stands in every state.
  • The crowd AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, week to Wed, Oct 14 (published Thu, Oct 15): 38.7% bullish, 19.7% neutral, 41.6% bearish — a bull–bear spread of −2.9 points, against AAII's long-run average of +6.0 (37.5% bullish, 31.5% bearish); +1.3 the week before. AAII · displayed, not scored

Sunday's risks against the tape

  • The Fed hikes on 28 October CPI at 3.7% [1] and a non-committal chair [2] leave a hike live, which would land on a liquidity component already negative everywhere. S&P 500 +0.75% since Sunday · Financials −0.47% since Sunday · Real Estate −0.30% since Sunday · Utilities −1.61% since Sunday
  • Capex financing tightens Hyperscaler liabilities above $4 trillion [9] and a 5.09% 10-year make the build-out sensitive to credit; a pullback in issuance would hit the hardware layers already at 30-week lows. AI & Hyperscalers +0.30% since Sunday · Data Centers & Neoclouds +0.47% since Sunday · Semiconductors & Equipment −0.23% since Sunday · Memory & Storage +3.82% since Sunday · Networking & Optics −0.48% since Sunday
  • Long yields reverse higher The rate-sensitive gains in the week to 16 Oct came with a 15 bp fall in the 10-year [14]; a reversal would undo them first. Utilities −1.61% since Sunday · Real Estate −0.30% since Sunday · Financials −0.47% since Sunday
  • A short squeeze lifts hardware Funds are net short 21.1% against a 17.2% mean, so a cover would hit the most oversold layers hardest and against the Risk-Off read. S&P 500 +0.75% since Sunday · Semiconductors & Equipment −0.23% since Sunday · Networking & Optics −0.48% since Sunday · Memory & Storage +3.82% since Sunday

Provisional states on Tuesday's closes

Provisional: next Sunday's states on Tuesday's closes beside Sunday's, both before any adjustment. Not published states and not a call; the triggers are read on these.
TacticalStructural
AreaSunTueChangeSunTueChange
S&P 500−11−6+5−27−19+8
Technology−18−15+3−7−1+6
Financials−17−12+5−4−40
Health Care+20+27+7+37+42+5
Consumer Discretionary−6+8+14−46−38+8
Consumer Staples+18+23+5+19+15−4
Energy+18+21+3+9+7−2
Industrials−30−27+3−65−67−2
Materials−6+4+10−17−170
Utilities−7−70−54−540
Real Estate−28−20+8−36−30+6
Communication Services−20−15+5−40−400
AI & Hyperscalers−2+4+6−16−160
Compute (accelerators)−25−27−2−10−19−9
Semiconductors & Equipment−34−36−2−58−56+2
Memory & Storage−36−34+2−55−51+4
Networking & Optics−37−39−2−70−69+1
Data Centers & Neoclouds−39−40−1−61−60+1
Power−28−32−4−43−48−5
AI Software−60+6+12+16+4

Session 2 since the issue of Sun, Oct 18; closes through Fri, Oct 16 are Sunday's · computed Sun, Nov 1, 5:24 AM · the sources are listed below

  • Prices Massive: split-adjusted daily closes through Tuesday, October 20, 503 S&P 500 constituents and every area's members
  • Treasury yields U.S. Treasury: daily par yield curve, Tue, Oct 20
  • Positioning CFTC: Traders in Financial Futures, S&P 500 consolidated, report dated Tue, Oct 13
  • The crowd AAII: Investor Sentiment Survey of Wed, Oct 14; displayed, not scored
  • Release BLS: latest major economic indicators bls.gov · Tue, Oct 20
  • Release Census Bureau: New Residential Construction census.gov · Tue, Oct 20
  • Market hours NYSE: holidays and early closes, computed from the exchange's rules
  • The issue Sunday's issue of October 18: the states, the triggers and the watch list this page grades
  • Closes re-read HYG's unchanged close, asked again of the provider and confirmed
  • The comment Drafted by a model from this document; every figure checked against it before it is shown.