After the close

Tuesday October 27

Sunday's risk of a snap-back from record lows in hardware played out on Tuesday: Semiconductors & Equipment gained +4.2%, Networking & Optics +7.2% and Memory & Storage +3.6% against the equal-weight S&P 500.The FOMC meeting opened with Real Estate at −1.0% and Utilities at +0.6% on the same measure.Four Risk-On triggers have crossed since Sunday: compute, networking, data centers and the market's structural state, which stands at −14.The AI & Hyperscalers Risk-Off trigger also crossed, but it rests on one move: META closing 1.9% below its 200-day average.The hardware Risk-Off calls are behind, networking by 10.35 points, while Communication Services is ahead by 2.28 points.

Sunday's issue of October 25

Since Sunday

S&P 500+0.56% on Tuesday+1.28%
Triggers crossed4 Risk-On, 1 Risk-Off5 / 18Calls aheadTactical calls1 / 11Nearest open triggerPower, Risk-On · AI Software, Risk-On1 pt away

Sunday's watch list

Throughout Semis structural state at −59, one point from Strong Risk-Off. The trigger nearest to firing; a further slip would put semis alongside networking and data centers in Strong Risk-Off. TriggerOn Tuesday's closes −56, from −59 at Sunday: 4 points from the Risk-Off trigger at −60 (1 at Sunday), further away. AreaTueSince Sun Semiconductors & Equipment+4.15%+5.38%Compute (accelerators)+3.78%+6.05%Networking & Optics+7.21%+10.35%
Tue FOMC two-day meeting begins. Rate-sensitive sectors rebounded in the week to 23 Oct on easing yields; the meeting tests that move. Census Bureau: New Home Sales Sales of new single-family houses in September 2026 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000. This is 0.6 percent (+/- 13.8%) below the revised August 2026 estimate of 680,000.Census Bureau: Advance Monthly Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders New orders for manufactured durable goods in September, up six of the last seven months, increased $6.3 billion or 1.8 percent to $345.4 billion. AreaTueSince Sun S&P 500+0.54%+1.24%Real Estate−0.95%−0.76%Utilities+0.60%+0.23%Financials−0.36%−0.49%
Wed FOMC rate decision; 94 of 100 economists expect a hold at 3.75%-4.00%. Guidance on the December hike every economist polled expects will set the 10-year's direction and the market's liquidity component, at −15 tactical on Friday's close. AreaTueSince Sun S&P 500+0.54%+1.24%Financials−0.36%−0.49%Real Estate−0.95%−0.76%Utilities+0.60%+0.23%
Thu Weekly initial jobless claims. Claims at 194,000 are the strongest support for the soft-landing reading behind the market's improving tactical state. AreaTueSince Sun S&P 500+0.54%+1.24%
Fri Meta's new enterprise terms take effect, shifting AI model liability to customers. A test of whether hyperscaler monetisation moves the AI layer, down 10 to −12 tactical in the week to 23 Oct. AreaTueSince Sun AI & Hyperscalers+0.79%+0.24%Communication Services−0.37%−2.28%META−1.64%−3.49%

Biggest moves

Sectors Technology led, +1.60% against the equal-weight S&P 500 · Energy lagged, −2.16%

S&P 500

503 names
NameTueSince Sun
Pentair PNR · Industrials+12.80%+12.64%
Flex FLEX · Technology+8.26%+8.88%
Dell Technologies DELL · Technology+7.47%+9.97%
Super Micro Computer SMCI · Technology+7.34%+6.53%
Bloom Energy BE · Industrials+7.15%+13.04%
Xylem XYL · Industrials−14.21%−14.60%
Boeing BA · Industrials−10.69%−10.71%
Valero Energy VLO · Energy−9.24%−7.62%
MARATHON PETROLEUM MPC · Energy−7.36%−4.65%
PHILLIPS 66 PSX · Energy−7.03%−5.17%

The chain

72 names
NameTueSince Sun
Celestica CLS · Networking & Optics+12.12%+6.36%
Nebius Group N.V. Class A NBIS · Data Centers & Neoclouds+11.22%+7.39%
Centrus Energy LEU · Power+11.15%+6.80%
Credo Technology Group Holding CRDO · Networking & Optics+10.77%+13.67%
Astera Labs ALAB · Networking & Optics+10.47%+11.48%
Salesforce CRM · AI Software−2.71%−3.09%
SERVICENOW NOW · AI Software−2.15%−2.63%
UiPath PATH · AI Software−1.68%−0.50%
Meta Platforms META · AI & Hyperscalers−1.64%−3.49%
Rambus RMBS · Memory & Storage−1.56%+3.81%

Triggers

Sunday's conditions on Tuesday's closes
  • Risk-On AI Compute (accelerators) tactical ≥ −24 · Tue −16 Crossed
  • Risk-On Market S&P 500 structural ≥ −18 · Tue −14 Crossed
  • Risk-Off AI AI & Hyperscalers structural ≤ −24 · Tue −25 Rests on META slipping below its 200-day (1.9% below at the close) Crossed
  • Risk-On AI Data Centers & Neoclouds structural ≥ −59 · Tue −58 Crossed
  • Risk-On AI Networking & Optics tactical ≥ −37 · Tue −37 Crossed
  • Risk-On AI Power tactical ≥ −30 · Tue −31 1 pt away closer
  • Risk-On AI AI Software structural ≥ +25 · Tue +24 1 pt away unchanged
  • Risk-On AI Semiconductors & Equipment tactical ≥ −33 · Tue −35 2 pts away closer
  • Risk-Off AI Semiconductors & Equipment structural ≤ −60 · Tue −56 4 pts away further

The calls since Sunday

Tactical, against the equal-weight S&P 500

Ahead 1

  • Risk-OffCommunication Services−2.28%

Behind 10

  • Risk-OffNetworking & Optics+10.35%
  • Risk-OffSemiconductors & Equipment+5.38%
  • Risk-OffData Centers & Neoclouds+7.31%
  • Risk-OffMemory & Storage+6.17%
  • Risk-OffPower+5.51%
  • Risk-OffCompute (accelerators)+6.05%
  • Risk-OffIndustrials+1.55%
  • Risk-OnEnergy−2.07%
  • Risk-OnHealth Care−0.51%
  • Risk-OnConsumer Staples−1.71%

No new calls are made during the week.

Next issue

Sunday, November 1

Market opens

Wednesday, October 28 · 9:30 AM–4:00 PM New York time

Every area

Relative: each area against the equal-weight S&P 500; the S&P 500 against T-bills. Sunday's states as published.
TuesdaySince SundaySunday's states
AreaReturnRelativeReturnRelativeAbove 50-dayTacticalStructural
S&P 500 vs T-bills+0.56%+0.54%+1.28%+1.24%60% (+2 pp)−8 Balanced−22 Balanced
Technology +1.70%+1.60%+3.42%+2.96%59% (+11 pp)−19 Balanced−8 Balanced
Consumer Discretionary +1.04%+0.94%+2.08%+1.63%57% (+6 pp)+7 Balanced−38 Risk-Off
Materials +0.78%+0.67%+0.92%+0.46%63% (−4 pp)+6 Balanced−12 Balanced
Utilities +0.71%+0.60%+0.68%+0.23%87% (+6 pp)+9 Balanced−42 Risk-Off
Industrials +0.57%+0.47%+2.00%+1.55%60% (+12 pp)−30 Risk-Off−64 Strong Risk-Off
Health Care −0.06%−0.16%−0.06%−0.51%82% (−3 pp)+26 Risk-On+51 Risk-On
Financials −0.25%−0.36%−0.04%−0.49%45% (−3 pp)−7 Balanced+7 Balanced
Communication Services −0.26%−0.37%−1.83%−2.28%10% (−19 pp)−35 Risk-Off−42 Risk-Off
Real Estate −0.84%−0.95%−0.31%−0.76%40% (−8 pp)−8 Balanced−17 Balanced
Consumer Staples −0.92%−1.03%−1.26%−1.71%70% (−6 pp)+25 Risk-On+26 Risk-On
Energy −2.05%−2.16%−1.62%−2.07%90% (+5 pp)+28 Risk-On+16 Balanced
Networking & Optics AI+7.32%+7.21%+10.80%+10.35%0 of 10−47 Risk-Off−70 Strong Risk-Off
Data Centers & Neoclouds AI+6.80%+6.69%+7.77%+7.31%0 of 10−45 Risk-Off−61 Strong Risk-Off
Power AI+4.87%+4.76%+5.96%+5.51%2 of 11−40 Risk-Off−52 Risk-Off
Semiconductors & Equipment AI+4.26%+4.15%+5.83%+5.38%2 of 13−45 Risk-Off−59 Risk-Off
Compute (accelerators) AI+3.89%+3.78%+6.50%+6.05%2 of 6−31 Risk-Off−17 Balanced
Memory & Storage AI+3.74%+3.63%+6.62%+6.17%1 of 7−42 Risk-Off−54 Risk-Off
AI & Hyperscalers AI+0.89%+0.79%+0.69%+0.24%1 of 5−12 Balanced−20 Balanced
AI Software AI−0.23%−0.34%+1.03%+0.58%7 of 10+2 Balanced+24 Balanced

Liquidity and rates

  • Credit appetite +0.25% on Tuesday · +0.28% since Sunday high yield minus investment grade
  • Dollar +0.38% on Tuesday · +0.55% since Sunday
  • Long bonds −0.06% on Tuesday · +0.36% since Sunday
  • Treasury curve 10-year 4.99% (−1 bp) · 2-year 4.70% (+2 bp) · 3-month 4.22% (0 bp) · 2s10s +29 bp par yields at the 2026-10-27 close; since Sunday −1 bp / +1 bp / 0 bp
  • Positioning CFTC Traders in Financial Futures, S&P 500 consolidated, report dated Tue, Oct 20 (published Fri, Oct 23): leveraged funds net short 19.1% of open interest, from net short 21.1% the week before. It stands in every state.
  • The crowd AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, week to Wed, Oct 21 (published Thu, Oct 22): 36.9% bullish, 17.3% neutral, 45.8% bearish — a bull–bear spread of −8.9 points, against AAII's long-run average of +6.0 (37.5% bullish, 31.5% bearish); −2.9 the week before. AAII · displayed, not scored

Sunday's risks against the tape

  • A hawkish hold reverses the yield relief All 100 economists polled expect a December hike; a firm signal could undo the 10-year's move off its peak and the rebound in real estate and utilities. S&P 500 +1.24% since Sunday · Real Estate −0.76% since Sunday · Utilities +0.23% since Sunday · Financials −0.49% since Sunday
  • Data-centre financing stress spreads Distressed CoreWeave bonds and a canceled Nscale site point to funding strain that could reach compute and power, both already at multi-week lows. Data Centers & Neoclouds +7.31% since Sunday · Compute (accelerators) +6.05% since Sunday · Power +5.51% since Sunday · AI & Hyperscalers +0.24% since Sunday
  • Inflation forces the Fed's hand sooner September CPI rose 0.6% and producer prices 1.3%; another hot print would hit a market whose structural state is already −22. S&P 500 +1.24% since Sunday · Consumer Staples −1.71% since Sunday · Consumer Discretionary +1.63% since Sunday
  • A snap-back from record lows in hardware Semis sit at p0 and positioning is a contrarian +19 with leveraged funds net short 19.1%; a short-covering bounce would catch the Risk-Off hardware view. Semiconductors & Equipment +5.38% since Sunday · Networking & Optics +10.35% since Sunday · Memory & Storage +6.17% since Sunday · S&P 500 +1.24% since Sunday

Provisional states on Tuesday's closes

Provisional: next Sunday's states on Tuesday's closes beside Sunday's, both before any adjustment. Not published states and not a call; the triggers are read on these.
TacticalStructural
AreaSunTueChangeSunTueChange
S&P 500−8+1+9−22−14+8
Technology−19−6+13−8+6+14
Financials−7−9−2+7+2−5
Health Care+26+20−6+51+47−4
Consumer Discretionary+7+16+9−38−28+10
Consumer Staples+25+14−11+26+21−5
Energy+28+23−5+16+13−3
Industrials−30−18+12−64−59+5
Materials+6+7+1−12−10+2
Utilities+9+14+5−42−39+3
Real Estate−8−13−5−17−22−5
Communication Services−35−51−16−42−51−9
AI & Hyperscalers−12−120−20−25−5
Compute (accelerators)−31−16+15−17−10+7
Semiconductors & Equipment−45−35+10−59−56+3
Memory & Storage−42−36+6−54−52+2
Networking & Optics−47−37+10−70−66+4
Data Centers & Neoclouds−45−38+7−61−58+3
Power−40−31+9−52−49+3
AI Software+2+9+7+24+240

Session 2 since the issue of Sun, Oct 25; closes through Fri, Oct 23 are Sunday's · computed Sun, Nov 1, 5:33 AM · the sources are listed below

  • Prices Massive: split-adjusted daily closes through Tuesday, October 27, 503 S&P 500 constituents and every area's members
  • Treasury yields U.S. Treasury: daily par yield curve, Tue, Oct 27
  • Positioning CFTC: Traders in Financial Futures, S&P 500 consolidated, report dated Tue, Oct 20
  • The crowd AAII: Investor Sentiment Survey of Wed, Oct 21; displayed, not scored
  • Release Census Bureau: New Home Sales census.gov · Tue, Oct 27
  • Release Census Bureau: Advance Monthly Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders census.gov · Tue, Oct 27
  • Market hours NYSE: holidays and early closes, computed from the exchange's rules
  • The issue Sunday's issue of October 25: the states, the triggers and the watch list this page grades
  • Closes re-read AES's unchanged close, asked again of the provider and confirmed
  • The comment Drafted by a model from this document; every figure checked against it before it is shown.