After the close

Wednesday October 28

The Federal Reserve's FOMC statement landed on Wednesday, the day Sunday's issue had circled, and the areas named in "A hawkish hold reverses the yield relief" moved its way: Real Estate −0.7% and Utilities −0.8% against the equal-weight S&P 500.The larger story is "A snap-back from record lows in hardware", with Networking & Optics +15.06% and Memory & Storage +10.85% against the equal-weight S&P 500 since Sunday, leaving those Risk-Off calls behind by 15.06 and 10.85 points.Risk-On triggers for compute, networking, data centers and the market's structural state have crossed; memory's rests on MU crossing above its 50-day average.The AI & Hyperscalers Risk-Off trigger holds only because META closed below its 200-day average.

Sunday's issue of October 25

Since Sunday

S&P 500+0.34% on Wednesday+1.62%
Triggers crossed5 Risk-On, 1 Risk-Off6 / 18Calls aheadTactical calls1 / 11Nearest open triggerSemiconductors & Equipment, Risk-On · AI Software, Risk-On2 pts away

Sunday's watch list

Throughout Semis structural state at −59, one point from Strong Risk-Off. The trigger nearest to firing; a further slip would put semis alongside networking and data centers in Strong Risk-Off. TriggerOn Wednesday's closes −56, from −59 at Sunday: 4 points from the Risk-Off trigger at −60 (1 at Sunday), further away. AreaWedSince Sun Semiconductors & Equipment+2.80%+8.34%Compute (accelerators)+2.43%+8.65%Networking & Optics+4.26%+15.06%
TuePassed FOMC two-day meeting begins. Rate-sensitive sectors rebounded in the week to 23 Oct on easing yields; the meeting tests that move. OutcomeWhat the tape did on Tuesday: Real Estate −0.95%, Utilities +0.60% and Financials −0.36% against the equal-weight S&P 500; the S&P 500 +0.54% against T-bills. AreaTueSince Sun S&P 500+0.54%+1.59%Real Estate−0.95%−1.44%Utilities+0.60%−0.58%Financials−0.36%0.00%
Wed FOMC rate decision; 94 of 100 economists expect a hold at 3.75%-4.00%. Guidance on the December hike every economist polled expects will set the 10-year's direction and the market's liquidity component, at −15 tactical on Friday's close. BLS: latest major economic indicators Consumer Price Index (CPI) +0.6% in Sep 2026; Unemployment Rate 4.2% in Sep 2026; Payroll Employment +29,000(p) in Sep 2026; Average Hourly Earnings +$0.05(p) in Sep 2026; Producer Price Index - Final Demand +1.3%(p) in Sep 2026; Productivity +1.4% in 2nd Qtr of 2026; U.S. Import Price Index +1.1% in Sep 2026. As published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 2026-10-28.Federal Reserve: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Monetary-policy press release: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement.Census Bureau: Housing Vacancies and Homeownership The homeownership rate of 65.5 percent was not statistically different from the rate in the third quarter 2025. The homeownership rates in the Northeast, Midwest, South, and West were not statistically different from third quarter 2025 rates.Census Bureau: Rental Vacancy Rate The rental vacancy rate of 7.6 percent was higher than the rate in the third quarter 2025. Compared to the third quarter 2025, the rental vacancy rates were higher in the Northeast and West, and they were not statistically different in the Midwest and South.Census Bureau: Advance U.S. International Trade in Goods The advance international trade deficit in goods increased to $134.9 billion in September from $132.1 billion in August as imports increased more than exports.Census Bureau: Advance Wholesale Inventories September end-of-month inventories were $1,011.5 billion, up 0.6 percent (+/- 0.2 percent) from last month.Census Bureau: Advance Retail Inventories September 2026 end-of-month inventories were $885.3 billion, up 0.3 percent (+/-0.2 percent) from last month. AreaWedSince Sun S&P 500+0.34%+1.59%Financials+0.49%0.00%Real Estate−0.69%−1.44%Utilities−0.80%−0.58%
Thu Weekly initial jobless claims. Claims at 194,000 are the strongest support for the soft-landing reading behind the market's improving tactical state. AreaWedSince Sun S&P 500+0.34%+1.59%
Fri Meta's new enterprise terms take effect, shifting AI model liability to customers. A test of whether hyperscaler monetisation moves the AI layer, down 10 to −12 tactical in the week to 23 Oct. AreaWedSince Sun AI & Hyperscalers+2.32%+2.64%Communication Services−0.38%−2.66%META−1.24%−4.69%

Biggest moves

Sectors Technology led, +0.84% against the equal-weight S&P 500 · Utilities lagged, −0.80%

S&P 500

503 names
NameWedSince Sun
Vertiv Holdings VRT · Industrials+16.48%+25.02%
Flex FLEX · Technology+11.61%+21.53%
Oracle ORCL · Technology+10.73%+14.57%
Labcorp LH · Health Care+8.78%+9.52%
Sandisk SNDK · Technology+7.66%+13.47%
F5 FFIV · Technology−20.43%−19.74%
CoStar CSGP · Real Estate−13.96%−18.81%
C.H. Robinson Worldwide CHRW · Industrials−11.14%−9.61%
Lennox International LII · Industrials−10.59%−11.53%
Baker Hughes BKR · Energy−7.36%−2.15%

The chain

72 names
NameWedSince Sun
Vertiv Holdings VRT · Data Centers & Neoclouds+16.48%+25.02%
Oracle ORCL · AI & Hyperscalers+10.73%+14.57%
Celestica CLS · Networking & Optics+8.41%+15.30%
Sandisk SNDK · Memory & Storage+7.66%+13.47%
Silicon Motion Technology SIMO · Memory & Storage+7.56%+17.19%
Teradyne TER · Semiconductors & Equipment−3.23%+1.42%
SERVICENOW NOW · AI Software−3.00%−5.55%
Vistra VST · Power−2.69%+1.83%
GE Vernova GEV · Power−1.90%+7.73%
NetApp NTAP · Memory & Storage−1.72%+3.80%

Triggers

Sunday's conditions on Wednesday's closes
  • Risk-On AI Compute (accelerators) tactical ≥ −24 · Wed −15 Crossed
  • Risk-On Market S&P 500 structural ≥ −18 · Wed −16 Crossed
  • Risk-On AI Networking & Optics tactical ≥ −37 · Wed −35 Crossed
  • Risk-On AI Memory & Storage tactical ≥ −32 · Wed −31 Rests on MU rising above its 50-day (0.3% above at the close) Crossed
  • Risk-On AI Data Centers & Neoclouds structural ≥ −59 · Wed −58 Crossed
  • Risk-Off AI AI & Hyperscalers structural ≤ −24 · Wed −24 Rests on META slipping below its 200-day (3.1% below at the close) Crossed
  • Risk-On AI Semiconductors & Equipment tactical ≥ −33 · Wed −35 2 pts away closer
  • Risk-On AI AI Software structural ≥ +25 · Wed +23 2 pts away further
  • Risk-On AI Power tactical ≥ −30 · Wed −33 3 pts away closer
  • Risk-Off AI Semiconductors & Equipment structural ≤ −60 · Wed −56 4 pts away further

The calls since Sunday

Tactical, against the equal-weight S&P 500

Ahead 1

  • Risk-OffCommunication Services−2.66%

Behind 10

  • Risk-OffNetworking & Optics+15.06%
  • Risk-OffSemiconductors & Equipment+8.34%
  • Risk-OffData Centers & Neoclouds+13.58%
  • Risk-OffMemory & Storage+10.85%
  • Risk-OffPower+6.48%
  • Risk-OffCompute (accelerators)+8.65%
  • Risk-OffIndustrials+1.94%
  • Risk-OnEnergy−1.68%
  • Risk-OnHealth Care−0.17%
  • Risk-OnConsumer Staples−2.02%

No new calls are made during the week.

Next issue

Sunday, November 1

Market opens

Thursday, October 29 · 9:30 AM–4:00 PM New York time

Every area

Relative: each area against the equal-weight S&P 500; the S&P 500 against T-bills. Sunday's states as published.
WednesdaySince SundaySunday's states
AreaReturnRelativeReturnRelativeAbove 50-dayTacticalStructural
S&P 500 vs T-bills+0.34%+0.34%+1.62%+1.59%58% (0 pp)−8 Balanced−22 Balanced
Technology +0.80%+0.84%+4.24%+3.83%61% (+13 pp)−19 Balanced−8 Balanced
Financials +0.45%+0.49%+0.41%0.00%45% (−3 pp)−7 Balanced+7 Balanced
Energy +0.35%+0.39%−1.27%−1.68%81% (−5 pp)+28 Risk-On+16 Balanced
Industrials +0.34%+0.38%+2.35%+1.94%57% (+8 pp)−30 Risk-Off−64 Strong Risk-Off
Health Care +0.30%+0.34%+0.25%−0.17%82% (−3 pp)+26 Risk-On+51 Risk-On
Materials +0.15%+0.20%+1.07%+0.66%63% (−4 pp)+6 Balanced−12 Balanced
Consumer Discretionary −0.10%−0.06%+1.97%+1.56%55% (+4 pp)+7 Balanced−38 Risk-Off
Consumer Staples −0.36%−0.31%−1.61%−2.02%67% (−9 pp)+25 Risk-On+26 Risk-On
Communication Services −0.42%−0.38%−2.25%−2.66%10% (−19 pp)−35 Risk-Off−42 Risk-Off
Real Estate −0.73%−0.69%−1.03%−1.44%30% (−18 pp)−8 Balanced−17 Balanced
Utilities −0.84%−0.80%−0.16%−0.58%84% (+3 pp)+9 Balanced−42 Risk-Off
Data Centers & Neoclouds AI+5.74%+5.78%+13.99%+13.58%0 of 10−45 Risk-Off−61 Strong Risk-Off
Memory & Storage AI+4.33%+4.38%+11.26%+10.85%2 of 7−42 Risk-Off−54 Risk-Off
Networking & Optics AI+4.21%+4.26%+15.47%+15.06%0 of 10−47 Risk-Off−70 Strong Risk-Off
Semiconductors & Equipment AI+2.76%+2.80%+8.76%+8.34%2 of 13−45 Risk-Off−59 Risk-Off
Compute (accelerators) AI+2.39%+2.43%+9.06%+8.65%2 of 6−31 Risk-Off−17 Balanced
AI & Hyperscalers AI+2.27%+2.32%+3.05%+2.64%2 of 5−12 Balanced−20 Balanced
Power AI+0.86%+0.90%+6.89%+6.48%1 of 11−40 Risk-Off−52 Risk-Off
AI Software AI−0.02%+0.02%+1.02%+0.61%7 of 10+2 Balanced+24 Balanced

Liquidity and rates

  • Credit appetite +0.21% on Wednesday · +0.49% since Sunday high yield minus investment grade
  • Dollar −0.21% on Wednesday · +0.35% since Sunday
  • Long bonds −0.78% on Wednesday · −0.43% since Sunday
  • Treasury curve 10-year 5.05% (+6 bp) · 2-year 4.67% (−3 bp) · 3-month 4.18% (−4 bp) · 2s10s +38 bp par yields at the 2026-10-28 close; since Sunday +5 bp / −2 bp / −4 bp
  • Positioning CFTC Traders in Financial Futures, S&P 500 consolidated, report dated Tue, Oct 20 (published Fri, Oct 23): leveraged funds net short 19.1% of open interest, from net short 21.1% the week before. It stands in every state.
  • The crowd AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, week to Wed, Oct 21 (published Thu, Oct 22): 36.9% bullish, 17.3% neutral, 45.8% bearish — a bull–bear spread of −8.9 points, against AAII's long-run average of +6.0 (37.5% bullish, 31.5% bearish); −2.9 the week before. AAII · displayed, not scored

Sunday's risks against the tape

  • A hawkish hold reverses the yield relief All 100 economists polled expect a December hike; a firm signal could undo the 10-year's move off its peak and the rebound in real estate and utilities. S&P 500 +1.59% since Sunday · Real Estate −1.44% since Sunday · Utilities −0.58% since Sunday · Financials 0.00% since Sunday
  • Data-centre financing stress spreads Distressed CoreWeave bonds and a canceled Nscale site point to funding strain that could reach compute and power, both already at multi-week lows. Data Centers & Neoclouds +13.58% since Sunday · Compute (accelerators) +8.65% since Sunday · Power +6.48% since Sunday · AI & Hyperscalers +2.64% since Sunday
  • Inflation forces the Fed's hand sooner September CPI rose 0.6% and producer prices 1.3%; another hot print would hit a market whose structural state is already −22. S&P 500 +1.59% since Sunday · Consumer Staples −2.02% since Sunday · Consumer Discretionary +1.56% since Sunday
  • A snap-back from record lows in hardware Semis sit at p0 and positioning is a contrarian +19 with leveraged funds net short 19.1%; a short-covering bounce would catch the Risk-Off hardware view. Semiconductors & Equipment +8.34% since Sunday · Networking & Optics +15.06% since Sunday · Memory & Storage +10.85% since Sunday · S&P 500 +1.59% since Sunday

Provisional states on Wednesday's closes

Provisional: next Sunday's states on Wednesday's closes beside Sunday's, both before any adjustment. Not published states and not a call; the triggers are read on these.
TacticalStructural
AreaSunWedChangeSunWedChange
S&P 500−8+1+9−22−16+6
Technology−19−6+13−8+6+14
Financials−7−4+3+7+2−5
Health Care+26+25−1+51+47−4
Consumer Discretionary+7+16+9−38−30+8
Consumer Staples+25+16−9+26+17−9
Energy+28+24−4+16+9−7
Industrials−30−16+14−64−57+7
Materials+6+10+4−12−10+2
Utilities+9+11+2−42−45−3
Real Estate−8−16−8−17−28−11
Communication Services−35−49−14−42−55−13
AI & Hyperscalers−12−5+7−20−24−4
Compute (accelerators)−31−15+16−17−1+16
Semiconductors & Equipment−45−35+10−59−56+3
Memory & Storage−42−31+11−54−49+5
Networking & Optics−47−35+12−70−66+4
Data Centers & Neoclouds−45−35+10−61−58+3
Power−40−33+7−52−48+4
AI Software+2+9+7+24+23−1

Session 3 since the issue of Sun, Oct 25; closes through Fri, Oct 23 are Sunday's · computed Sun, Nov 1, 5:28 AM · the sources are listed below