After the close

Friday October 23

Friday's CFTC report, the item Sunday's list dated for Friday, showed leveraged funds net short 19.1% of open interest, from 21.1% the week before.The layers in Sunday's short-squeeze risk split: Semiconductors & Equipment +1.7% and Memory & Storage +0.3% against the equal-weight S&P 500, Networking & Optics −0.3%.The Power Risk-Off trigger crossed at −52, but it rests on one move: TLN, BE and PWR each crossed below their 200-day averages.The Networking & Optics and Data Centers & Neoclouds Risk-Off triggers also crossed, with AI & Hyperscalers and Semiconductors & Equipment 1 point away.The Networking & Optics Risk-Off call leads by 10.78 points since Sunday.

Sunday's issue of October 18

Since Sunday

S&P 500−0.52% on Friday−0.43%
Triggers crossed0 Risk-On, 3 Risk-Off3 / 18Calls aheadTactical calls8 / 8Nearest open triggerAI & Hyperscalers, Risk-Off · Semiconductors & Equipment, Risk-Off1 pt away

Sunday's watch list

Throughout US Treasury par yield curve The 10-year fell 15 bp to 5.09% in the week to 16 Oct; whether it holds decides if the rate-sensitive lifts in utilities and real estate extend.
Throughout Q3 earnings season continues Expected blended growth near 29.5% is the story behind a tape with structural breadth at −49.
ThuPassed US weekly initial jobless claims A labour read ahead of the FOMC, with a market still weighing a hike after 3.7% CPI.
Fri CFTC Commitments of Traders Funds are net short 21.1% against a 17.2% mean; a cover would cut the +39 positioning support across every area. CFTC: Commitments of Traders, report dated Tue 20 Oct CFTC Traders in Financial Futures, S&P 500 consolidated, report dated Tue, Oct 20 (published Fri, Oct 23): leveraged funds net short 19.1% of open interest, from net short 21.1% the week before. It stands in every state.
Wed 28 Oct FOMC decision at the end of the 27-28 October meeting Warsh gave no signal; a hike would hit liquidity, already −32 tactical and −26 structural across the board.

Biggest moves

Sectors Energy led, +3.37% against the equal-weight S&P 500 · Consumer Staples lagged, −1.15%

S&P 500

503 names
NameFriSince Sun
Crown Castle CCI · Real Estate+9.06%+4.51%
CrowdStrike Holdings CRWD · Technology+8.25%+13.27%
Palo Alto Networks PANW · Technology+7.22%+11.27%
SLB SLB · Energy+7.08%+7.19%
Halliburton HAL · Energy+5.21%+4.24%
Bloom Energy BE · Industrials−11.24%−12.66%
Comfort Systems USA FIX · Industrials−9.26%−19.33%
Globe Life GL · Financials−8.09%−8.28%
AT&T T · Communication Services−7.96%−10.71%
T-Mobile US TMUS · Communication Services−7.71%−7.89%

The chain

72 names
NameFriSince Sun
Entegris ENTG · Semiconductors & Equipment+4.84%−3.04%
Datadog DDOG · AI Software+4.62%+9.12%
Elastic ESTC · AI Software+4.30%+11.65%
FormFactor FORM · Semiconductors & Equipment+3.66%−6.19%
Snowflake SNOW · AI Software+3.65%+6.06%
Bloom Energy BE · Power−11.24%−12.66%
Credo Technology Group Holding CRDO · Networking & Optics−9.51%−13.21%
Cipher Digital CIFR · Data Centers & Neoclouds−4.57%−11.58%
Applied Digital APLD · Data Centers & Neoclouds−4.40%+1.11%
Celestica CLS · Networking & Optics−3.35%−14.42%

Triggers

Sunday's conditions on Friday's closes
  • Risk-Off AI Power structural ≤ −50 · Fri −52 Rests on TLN slipping below its 200-day (6.4% below at the close) and BE slipping below its 200-day (11.9% below at the close) and PWR slipping below its 200-day (12.1% below at the close) Crossed
  • Risk-Off AI Networking & Optics weekly change in tactical ≤ −10 · since Sunday −10 Crossed
  • Risk-Off AI Data Centers & Neoclouds tactical ≤ −45 · Fri −45 Crossed
  • Risk-Off AI AI & Hyperscalers structural ≤ −21 · Fri −20 1 pt away closer
  • Risk-Off AI Semiconductors & Equipment structural ≤ −60 · Fri −59 1 pt away closer
  • Risk-On Market S&P 500 structural ≥ −20 · Fri −22 2 pts away closer
  • Risk-On AI Data Centers & Neoclouds structural ≥ −59 · Fri −61 2 pts away unchanged

The calls since Sunday

Tactical, against the equal-weight S&P 500

Ahead 8

  • Risk-OffData Centers & Neoclouds−6.23%
  • Risk-OffNetworking & Optics−10.78%
  • Risk-OffMemory & Storage−2.59%
  • Risk-OffSemiconductors & Equipment−7.42%
  • Risk-OffIndustrials−3.02%
  • Risk-OffReal Estate−0.17%
  • Risk-OffPower−10.12%
  • Risk-OffCompute (accelerators)−2.66%

No new calls are made during the week.

Next issue

Sunday, October 25

Market opens

Monday, October 26 · 9:30 AM–4:00 PM New York time

Every area

Relative: each area against the equal-weight S&P 500; the S&P 500 against T-bills. Sunday's states as published.
FridaySince SundaySunday's states
AreaReturnRelativeReturnRelativeAbove 50-dayTacticalStructural
S&P 500 vs T-bills−0.52%−0.56%−0.43%−0.50%58% (+13 pp)−11 Balanced−27 Risk-Off
Energy +2.60%+3.37%+1.60%+0.45%86% (+10 pp)+18 Balanced+9 Balanced
Technology +0.49%+1.26%−0.13%−1.28%48% (+12 pp)−18 Balanced−7 Balanced
Real Estate +0.12%+0.89%+0.97%−0.17%48% (+24 pp)−28 Risk-Off−36 Risk-Off
Utilities −0.72%+0.05%+0.83%−0.32%81% (+10 pp)−7 Balanced−54 Risk-Off
Materials −0.74%+0.03%+0.77%−0.38%67% (+21 pp)−6 Balanced−17 Balanced
Health Care −1.11%−0.34%+1.45%+0.31%85% (+13 pp)+20 Balanced+37 Risk-On
Industrials −1.27%−0.50%−1.87%−3.02%48% (+19 pp)−30 Risk-Off−65 Strong Risk-Off
Financials −1.32%−0.55%+0.68%−0.46%47% (+8 pp)−17 Balanced−4 Balanced
Consumer Discretionary −1.66%−0.89%+0.57%−0.58%51% (+11 pp)−6 Balanced−46 Risk-Off
Communication Services −1.78%−1.01%−4.36%−5.50%29% (+10 pp)−20 Balanced−40 Risk-Off
Consumer Staples −1.92%−1.15%+0.73%−0.41%76% (+6 pp)+18 Balanced+19 Balanced
AI Software AI+1.41%+2.18%+5.94%+4.79%5 of 10−6 Balanced+12 Balanced
Semiconductors & Equipment AI+0.96%+1.73%−6.27%−7.42%0 of 13−34 Risk-Off−58 Risk-Off
Compute (accelerators) AI+0.12%+0.89%−1.52%−2.66%0 of 6−25 Risk-Off−10 Balanced
AI & Hyperscalers AI−0.40%+0.37%−3.73%−4.88%1 of 5−2 Balanced−16 Balanced
Memory & Storage AI−0.45%+0.32%−1.44%−2.59%1 of 7−36 Risk-Off−55 Risk-Off
Networking & Optics AI−1.07%−0.30%−9.63%−10.78%0 of 10−37 Risk-Off−70 Strong Risk-Off
Data Centers & Neoclouds AI−1.44%−0.67%−5.09%−6.23%0 of 10−39 Risk-Off−61 Strong Risk-Off
Power AI−2.07%−1.30%−8.97%−10.12%1 of 11−28 Risk-Off−43 Risk-Off

Liquidity and rates

  • Credit appetite +0.35% on Friday · −0.19% since Sunday high yield minus investment grade
  • Dollar +0.21% on Friday · +0.14% since Sunday
  • Long bonds −0.49% on Friday · +1.61% since Sunday
  • Treasury curve 10-year 5.00% (+4 bp) · 2-year 4.69% (+4 bp) · 3-month 4.22% (0 bp) · 2s10s +31 bp par yields at the 2026-10-23 close; since Sunday −9 bp / −5 bp / −4 bp
  • Positioning CFTC Traders in Financial Futures, S&P 500 consolidated, report dated Tue, Oct 20 (published Fri, Oct 23): leveraged funds net short 19.1% of open interest, from net short 21.1% the week before. It stands in every state.
  • The crowd AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, week to Wed, Oct 21 (published Thu, Oct 22): 36.9% bullish, 17.3% neutral, 45.8% bearish — a bull–bear spread of −8.9 points, against AAII's long-run average of +6.0 (37.5% bullish, 31.5% bearish); −2.9 the week before. AAII · displayed, not scored

Sunday's risks against the tape

  • The Fed hikes on 28 October CPI at 3.7% [1] and a non-committal chair [2] leave a hike live, which would land on a liquidity component already negative everywhere. S&P 500 −0.50% since Sunday · Financials −0.46% since Sunday · Real Estate −0.17% since Sunday · Utilities −0.32% since Sunday
  • Capex financing tightens Hyperscaler liabilities above $4 trillion [9] and a 5.09% 10-year make the build-out sensitive to credit; a pullback in issuance would hit the hardware layers already at 30-week lows. AI & Hyperscalers −4.88% since Sunday · Data Centers & Neoclouds −6.23% since Sunday · Semiconductors & Equipment −7.42% since Sunday · Memory & Storage −2.59% since Sunday · Networking & Optics −10.78% since Sunday
  • Long yields reverse higher The rate-sensitive gains in the week to 16 Oct came with a 15 bp fall in the 10-year [14]; a reversal would undo them first. Utilities −0.32% since Sunday · Real Estate −0.17% since Sunday · Financials −0.46% since Sunday
  • A short squeeze lifts hardware Funds are net short 21.1% against a 17.2% mean, so a cover would hit the most oversold layers hardest and against the Risk-Off read. S&P 500 −0.50% since Sunday · Semiconductors & Equipment −7.42% since Sunday · Networking & Optics −10.78% since Sunday · Memory & Storage −2.59% since Sunday

Provisional states on Friday's closes

Provisional: next Sunday's states on Friday's closes beside Sunday's, both before any adjustment. Not published states and not a call; the triggers are read on these.
TacticalStructural
AreaSunFriChangeSunFriChange
S&P 500−11−8+3−27−22+5
Technology−18−19−1−7−8−1
Financials−17−7+10−4+7+11
Health Care+20+26+6+37+51+14
Consumer Discretionary−6+7+13−46−38+8
Consumer Staples+18+25+7+19+26+7
Energy+18+28+10+9+16+7
Industrials−30−300−65−64+1
Materials−6+6+12−17−12+5
Utilities−7+9+16−54−42+12
Real Estate−28−8+20−36−17+19
Communication Services−20−35−15−40−42−2
AI & Hyperscalers−2−12−10−16−20−4
Compute (accelerators)−25−31−6−10−17−7
Semiconductors & Equipment−34−45−11−58−59−1
Memory & Storage−36−42−6−55−54+1
Networking & Optics−37−47−10−70−700
Data Centers & Neoclouds−39−45−6−61−610
Power−28−40−12−43−52−9
AI Software−6+2+8+12+24+12

Session 5 since the issue of Sun, Oct 18; closes through Fri, Oct 16 are Sunday's · computed Sun, Nov 1, 5:26 AM · the sources are listed below

  • Prices Massive: split-adjusted daily closes through Friday, October 23, 503 S&P 500 constituents and every area's members
  • Treasury yields U.S. Treasury: daily par yield curve, Fri, Oct 23
  • Positioning CFTC: Traders in Financial Futures, S&P 500 consolidated, report dated Tue, Oct 20
  • The crowd AAII: Investor Sentiment Survey of Wed, Oct 21; displayed, not scored
  • Market hours NYSE: holidays and early closes, computed from the exchange's rules
  • The issue Sunday's issue of October 18: the states, the triggers and the watch list this page grades
  • Closes re-read SMR's unchanged close, asked again of the provider and confirmed; WDAY's unchanged close, asked again of the provider and confirmed; WULF's unchanged close, asked again of the provider and confirmed
  • The comment Drafted by a model from this document; every figure checked against it before it is shown.