Chip stocks hit 82-week lows while software and defensives hold up

Hyperscalers are holding near the market (tactical rs −4) while their suppliers sit at rs −42 to −71; the market is not yet punishing the spenders as hard as the sellers.

Tactical −12 (Δ-10, lowest in 12 weeks) is dragged by breadth −37 and momentum −25, but rs is only −4. Structural −20 (conviction 80) carries rs −32 and trend −23 with flat breadth +1.

The hyperscalers are pushing monetisation: standalone Copilot with usage billing, Meta shifting AI liability to enterprise customers, Oracle's agent studio. Investors appear to see them as AI spenders whose returns are still unproven.

The product cycle reads strong while the tactical tape is near its worst in 78 weeks; only the structural trend still sides with the story.

Tactical −31 (Δ-6, conviction 90) is the lowest in 78 weeks at p5, with breadth −65, momentum −43 and rs −42. Structural −17 still holds a positive trend +9, the only positive structural trend among the hardware layers.

Nvidia is widening its reach with DSX POD, Vera CPUs and doubled testing capacity, but investors are focused on its up to $164.5 billion in data-centre guarantees and the profitability of AI spend.

Supply-chain commitments say multi-year demand; the tape says the weakest semis reading in the board's history.

Tactical −45 (Δ-12, p6, lowest in 11 weeks) with breadth −73, momentum −49 and rs −69. Structural −59 (conviction 100) is at p0, the lowest in 82 weeks, with breadth −100 and trend −60. Positioning +19 is the only support.

Capacity is being built: Nvidia's Amkor deal lifts advanced packaging capacity by over 300% by late 2028 and testing capacity doubles by 2027. Investors appear to doubt the end demand will pay for it.

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Tactical −42 (Δ-6, p7) with breadth −64, momentum −48 and rs −61. Structural −54 (p2, conviction 100) has breadth at −100 and trend −61.

No memory-specific news in the week to 23 Oct; investors are pricing memory and storage with the rest of AI hardware.

The widest gap on the board: guidance went up and the tactical state fell ten points.

Tactical −47 (Δ-10, p9) with momentum −57 and rs −71. Structural −70 is Strong Risk-Off at p1, with rs −84 and trend −81, the weakest structural state among the deep layers.

Arista raised its full-year revenue forecast to about $12.6 billion from $11.5 billion, targets at least $3.5 billion of AI-fabric revenue and has over 100 Etherlink customers, with component shortages running to 2028.

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Tactical −45 (Δ-6) is the lowest in 78 weeks at p5, with rs −69 and trend −58. Structural −61 is Strong Risk-Off at p2, with breadth −100 and trend −80.

Investors are focused on financing stress: CoreWeave's distressed bonds and Microsoft's termination of an Nscale site agreement, against Nvidia's pitch that DSX POD cuts deployment to as little as 14 days.

Scarcity of power is part of the story, yet power has the worst momentum on the board at −65.

Tactical −40 (Δ-12) is the lowest in 43 weeks, with momentum −65, the weakest momentum on the board, and rs −52. Structural −52 (Δ-9) is the lowest in 28 weeks, with breadth −82.

Constrained electricity supply is cited as a limit on AI build-outs, which should favor power owners; investors are instead treating power as part of the AI capex trade under profitability scrutiny.

The relative strength is strong but the trend is thin: structural trend +3 and tactical trend −10 do not yet confirm the rs +60.

Tactical +2 (Δ+9, conviction 45) with momentum +19 and rs +10, trend still −10. Structural +24 (Δ+13) sits at p96 with rs +60 and breadth +49, though conviction is only 50 and trend just +3.

Investors appear to believe agents are where AI revenue arrives first: Salesforce's $5.66 billion Braze deal, Oracle's $1 billion partner pledge, Snowflake's agent releases and Microsoft's standalone Copilot.