After the close

Thursday October 29

Thursday's jobless claims printed at 194,000, down 1,000 from the previous week's revised level; the market closed −0.39% against T-bills on Thursday, still +1.19% since Sunday.The day's story was Sunday's risk that data-centre financing stress spreads.Against the equal-weight S&P 500, Data Centers & Neoclouds closed −4.81%, Compute (accelerators) −5.35% and AI & Hyperscalers −4.91%.The market's Risk-On trigger has crossed, its structural state at −12 from −22.The AI & Hyperscalers Risk-Off trigger rests only on META crossing below its 200-day average, and Compute's Risk-On trigger only on AMD crossing above its 50-day.

Sunday's issue of October 25

Since Sunday

S&P 500−0.38% on Thursday+1.24%
Triggers crossed5 Risk-On, 1 Risk-Off6 / 18Calls aheadTactical calls2 / 11Nearest open triggerMemory & Storage, Risk-On2 pts away

Sunday's watch list

Throughout Semis structural state at −59, one point from Strong Risk-Off. The trigger nearest to firing; a further slip would put semis alongside networking and data centers in Strong Risk-Off. TriggerOn Thursday's closes −56, from −59 at Sunday: 4 points from the Risk-Off trigger at −60 (1 at Sunday), further away. AreaThuSince Sun Semiconductors & Equipment−2.36%+5.89%Compute (accelerators)−5.35%+2.88%Networking & Optics−4.23%+10.35%
TuePassed FOMC two-day meeting begins. Rate-sensitive sectors rebounded in the week to 23 Oct on easing yields; the meeting tests that move. OutcomeWhat the tape did on Tuesday: Real Estate −0.95%, Utilities +0.60% and Financials −0.36% against the equal-weight S&P 500; the S&P 500 +0.54% against T-bills. AreaTueSince Sun S&P 500+0.54%+1.19%Real Estate−0.95%−0.47%Utilities+0.60%−0.25%Financials−0.36%+0.24%
WedPassed FOMC rate decision; 94 of 100 economists expect a hold at 3.75%-4.00%. Guidance on the December hike every economist polled expects will set the 10-year's direction and the market's liquidity component, at −15 tactical on Friday's close. OutcomeFederal Reserve: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Monetary-policy press release: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement. AreaWedSince Sun S&P 500+0.34%+1.19%Financials+0.49%+0.24%Real Estate−0.69%−0.47%Utilities−0.80%−0.25%
Thu Weekly initial jobless claims. Claims at 194,000 are the strongest support for the soft-landing reading behind the market's improving tactical state. Labor Department: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report In the week ending October 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 194,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 194,000 to 195,000.AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, week to Wed 28 Oct AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, week to Wed, Oct 28 (published Thu, Oct 29): 37.8% bullish, 20.7% neutral, 41.4% bearish — a bull–bear spread of −3.6 points, against AAII's long-run average of +6.0 (37.5% bullish, 31.5% bearish); −8.9 the week before. AreaThuSince Sun S&P 500−0.39%+1.19%
Fri Meta's new enterprise terms take effect, shifting AI model liability to customers. A test of whether hyperscaler monetisation moves the AI layer, down 10 to −12 tactical in the week to 23 Oct. AreaThuSince Sun AI & Hyperscalers−4.91%−2.45%Communication Services−3.07%−5.69%META+1.96%−2.82%

Biggest moves

Sectors Health Care led, +1.20% against the equal-weight S&P 500 · Communication Services lagged, −3.07%

S&P 500

503 names
NameThuSince Sun
Gen Digital GEN · Technology+15.81%+13.34%
Carvana CVNA · Consumer Discretionary+15.68%+18.16%
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH · Consumer Discretionary+13.45%+20.66%
Huntington Ingalls Industries HII · Industrials+13.23%+15.37%
Textron TXT · Industrials+11.67%+13.84%
SERVICENOW NOW · Technology−26.95%−31.01%
Fortinet FTNT · Technology−20.09%−22.72%
Marvell Technology MRVL · Technology−13.24%−4.45%
Alphabet GOOGL · Communication Services−12.64%−11.36%
Alphabet Inc. Class C Capital Stock GOOG · Communication Services−12.29%−11.02%

The chain

72 names
NameThuSince Sun
KLA KLAC · Semiconductors & Equipment+5.45%+14.99%
Quanta Services PWR · Power+4.66%+16.24%
NuScale Power SMR · Power+4.41%+10.04%
Silicon Motion Technology SIMO · Memory & Storage+3.71%+21.54%
Equinix, Inc. Common Stock REIT EQIX · Data Centers & Neoclouds+2.88%+8.55%
SERVICENOW NOW · AI Software−26.95%−31.01%
Marvell Technology MRVL · Compute (accelerators)−13.24%−4.45%
Alphabet GOOGL · AI & Hyperscalers−12.64%−11.36%
FormFactor FORM · Semiconductors & Equipment−11.65%−1.07%
IREN IREN · Data Centers & Neoclouds−8.98%+5.40%

Triggers

Sunday's conditions on Thursday's closes
  • Risk-On Market S&P 500 structural ≥ −18 · Thu −12 Crossed
  • Risk-Off AI AI & Hyperscalers structural ≤ −24 · Thu −26 Rests on META slipping below its 200-day (1.2% below at the close) Crossed
  • Risk-On AI Compute (accelerators) tactical ≥ −24 · Thu −23 Rests on AMD rising above its 50-day (3.4% above at the close) Crossed
  • Risk-On AI Power tactical ≥ −30 · Thu −29 Crossed
  • Risk-On AI Networking & Optics tactical ≥ −37 · Thu −37 Crossed
  • Risk-On AI Data Centers & Neoclouds structural ≥ −59 · Thu −59 Crossed
  • Risk-On AI Memory & Storage tactical ≥ −32 · Thu −34 2 pts away closer
  • Risk-On AI Semiconductors & Equipment tactical ≥ −33 · Thu −37 4 pts away closer
  • Risk-Off AI Semiconductors & Equipment structural ≤ −60 · Thu −56 4 pts away further
  • Risk-Off AI AI Software tactical ≤ −10 · Thu −5 5 pts away closer

The calls since Sunday

Tactical, against the equal-weight S&P 500

Ahead 2

  • Risk-OffCommunication Services−5.69%
  • Risk-OnHealth Care+1.04%

Behind 9

  • Risk-OffNetworking & Optics+10.35%
  • Risk-OffSemiconductors & Equipment+5.89%
  • Risk-OffData Centers & Neoclouds+8.20%
  • Risk-OffMemory & Storage+8.27%
  • Risk-OffPower+5.94%
  • Risk-OffCompute (accelerators)+2.88%
  • Risk-OffIndustrials+1.73%
  • Risk-OnEnergy−2.51%
  • Risk-OnConsumer Staples−1.71%

No new calls are made during the week.

Next issue

Sunday, November 1

Market opens

Friday, October 30 · 9:30 AM–4:00 PM New York time

Every area

Relative: each area against the equal-weight S&P 500; the S&P 500 against T-bills. Sunday's states as published.
ThursdaySince SundaySunday's states
AreaReturnRelativeReturnRelativeAbove 50-dayTacticalStructural
S&P 500 vs T-bills−0.38%−0.39%+1.24%+1.19%65% (+7 pp)−8 Balanced−22 Balanced
Health Care +2.40%+1.20%+2.66%+1.04%82% (−3 pp)+26 Risk-On+51 Risk-On
Real Estate +2.21%+1.01%+1.15%−0.47%50% (+2 pp)−8 Balanced−17 Balanced
Consumer Staples +1.54%+0.34%−0.09%−1.71%76% (0 pp)+25 Risk-On+26 Risk-On
Utilities +1.53%+0.33%+1.36%−0.25%87% (+6 pp)+9 Balanced−42 Risk-Off
Financials +1.44%+0.24%+1.86%+0.24%63% (+16 pp)−7 Balanced+7 Balanced
Materials +1.29%+0.09%+2.38%+0.76%75% (+8 pp)+6 Balanced−12 Balanced
Industrials +0.97%−0.23%+3.35%+1.73%64% (+16 pp)−30 Risk-Off−64 Strong Risk-Off
Consumer Discretionary +0.75%−0.45%+2.74%+1.12%64% (+13 pp)+7 Balanced−38 Risk-Off
Energy +0.38%−0.82%−0.89%−2.51%81% (−5 pp)+28 Risk-On+16 Balanced
Technology −1.18%−2.38%+3.01%+1.39%53% (+5 pp)−19 Balanced−8 Balanced
Communication Services −1.87%−3.07%−4.08%−5.69%19% (−10 pp)−35 Risk-Off−42 Risk-Off
Power AI+0.64%−0.56%+7.55%+5.94%2 of 11−40 Risk-Off−52 Risk-Off
Semiconductors & Equipment AI−1.16%−2.36%+7.50%+5.89%1 of 13−45 Risk-Off−59 Risk-Off
Memory & Storage AI−1.27%−2.47%+9.88%+8.27%1 of 7−42 Risk-Off−54 Risk-Off
Networking & Optics AI−3.03%−4.23%+11.97%+10.35%0 of 10−47 Risk-Off−70 Strong Risk-Off
Data Centers & Neoclouds AI−3.61%−4.81%+9.81%+8.20%3 of 10−45 Risk-Off−61 Strong Risk-Off
AI & Hyperscalers AI−3.71%−4.91%−0.84%−2.45%1 of 5−12 Balanced−20 Balanced
Compute (accelerators) AI−4.15%−5.35%+4.50%+2.88%1 of 6−31 Risk-Off−17 Balanced
AI Software AI−5.10%−6.30%−3.97%−5.59%4 of 10+2 Balanced+24 Balanced

Liquidity and rates

  • Credit appetite −0.16% on Thursday · +0.33% since Sunday high yield minus investment grade
  • Dollar −0.07% on Thursday · +0.28% since Sunday
  • Long bonds +0.62% on Thursday · +0.18% since Sunday
  • Treasury curve 10-year 4.98% (−7 bp) · 2-year 4.61% (−6 bp) · 3-month 4.18% (0 bp) · 2s10s +37 bp par yields at the 2026-10-29 close; since Sunday −2 bp / −8 bp / −4 bp
  • Positioning CFTC Traders in Financial Futures, S&P 500 consolidated, report dated Tue, Oct 20 (published Fri, Oct 23): leveraged funds net short 19.1% of open interest, from net short 21.1% the week before. It stands in every state.
  • The crowd AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, week to Wed, Oct 28 (published Thu, Oct 29): 37.8% bullish, 20.7% neutral, 41.4% bearish — a bull–bear spread of −3.6 points, against AAII's long-run average of +6.0 (37.5% bullish, 31.5% bearish); −8.9 the week before. AAII · displayed, not scored

Sunday's risks against the tape

  • A hawkish hold reverses the yield relief All 100 economists polled expect a December hike; a firm signal could undo the 10-year's move off its peak and the rebound in real estate and utilities. S&P 500 +1.19% since Sunday · Real Estate −0.47% since Sunday · Utilities −0.25% since Sunday · Financials +0.24% since Sunday
  • Data-centre financing stress spreads Distressed CoreWeave bonds and a canceled Nscale site point to funding strain that could reach compute and power, both already at multi-week lows. Data Centers & Neoclouds +8.20% since Sunday · Compute (accelerators) +2.88% since Sunday · Power +5.94% since Sunday · AI & Hyperscalers −2.45% since Sunday
  • Inflation forces the Fed's hand sooner September CPI rose 0.6% and producer prices 1.3%; another hot print would hit a market whose structural state is already −22. S&P 500 +1.19% since Sunday · Consumer Staples −1.71% since Sunday · Consumer Discretionary +1.12% since Sunday
  • A snap-back from record lows in hardware Semis sit at p0 and positioning is a contrarian +19 with leveraged funds net short 19.1%; a short-covering bounce would catch the Risk-Off hardware view. Semiconductors & Equipment +5.89% since Sunday · Networking & Optics +10.35% since Sunday · Memory & Storage +8.27% since Sunday · S&P 500 +1.19% since Sunday

Provisional states on Thursday's closes

Provisional: next Sunday's states on Thursday's closes beside Sunday's, both before any adjustment. Not published states and not a call; the triggers are read on these.
TacticalStructural
AreaSunThuChangeSunThuChange
S&P 500−8+3+11−22−12+10
Technology−19−11+8−8+5+13
Financials−7+12+19+7+16+9
Health Care+26+37+11+51+53+2
Consumer Discretionary+7+21+14−38−24+14
Consumer Staples+25+30+5+26+21−5
Energy+28+26−2+16+11−5
Industrials−30−6+24−64−50+14
Materials+6+22+16−12−6+6
Utilities+9+22+13−42−34+8
Real Estate−8+4+12−17−16+1
Communication Services−35−50−15−42−55−13
AI & Hyperscalers−12−21−9−20−26−6
Compute (accelerators)−31−23+8−17−4+13
Semiconductors & Equipment−45−37+8−59−56+3
Memory & Storage−42−34+8−54−50+4
Networking & Optics−47−37+10−70−67+3
Data Centers & Neoclouds−45−32+13−61−59+2
Power−40−29+11−52−45+7
AI Software+2−5−7+24+17−7

Session 4 since the issue of Sun, Oct 25; closes through Fri, Oct 23 are Sunday's · computed Sun, Nov 1, 5:29 AM · the sources are listed below

  • Prices Massive: split-adjusted daily closes through Thursday, October 29, 503 S&P 500 constituents and every area's members
  • Treasury yields U.S. Treasury: daily par yield curve, Thu, Oct 29
  • Positioning CFTC: Traders in Financial Futures, S&P 500 consolidated, report dated Tue, Oct 20
  • The crowd AAII: Investor Sentiment Survey of Wed, Oct 28; displayed, not scored
  • Release Labor Department: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report dol.gov · Thu, Oct 29
  • Release Federal Reserve: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement federalreserve.gov · Wed, Oct 28
  • Market hours NYSE: holidays and early closes, computed from the exchange's rules
  • The issue Sunday's issue of October 25: the states, the triggers and the watch list this page grades
  • Closes re-read NOW's move on the day, asked again of the provider and confirmed
  • The comment Drafted by a model from this document; every figure checked against it before it is shown.