After the close

Friday October 30

Meta's new enterprise terms took effect on Friday; META closed −1.5%, −4.3% since Sunday, and AI & Hyperscalers −1.7% against the equal-weight S&P 500.Sunday's risk that data-centre financing stress spreads showed in its areas: Compute −6.7%, Data Centers & Neoclouds −6.4% and Power −3.3% against the equal-weight S&P 500, as the S&P 500 fell −1.8%.The AI & Hyperscalers Risk-Off trigger crossed at −35, but it rests on one move: AMZN and META both closed below their 200-day averages.The AI Software and Compute Risk-Off triggers also crossed, and the Communication Services Risk-Off call is ahead by 6.13 points.

Sunday's issue of October 25

Since Sunday

S&P 500−1.77% on Friday−0.56%
Triggers crossed0 Risk-On, 3 Risk-Off3 / 18Calls aheadTactical calls7 / 11Nearest open triggerData Centers & Neoclouds, Risk-On1 pt away

Sunday's watch list

Throughout Semis structural state at −59, one point from Strong Risk-Off. The trigger nearest to firing; a further slip would put semis alongside networking and data centers in Strong Risk-Off. TriggerOn Friday's closes −58, from −59 at Sunday: 2 points from the Risk-Off trigger at −60 (1 at Sunday), further away. AreaFriSince Sun Semiconductors & Equipment−5.94%−0.50%Compute (accelerators)−6.70%−4.16%Networking & Optics−8.04%+1.23%
TuePassed FOMC two-day meeting begins. Rate-sensitive sectors rebounded in the week to 23 Oct on easing yields; the meeting tests that move. OutcomeWhat the tape did on Tuesday: Real Estate −0.95%, Utilities +0.60% and Financials −0.36% against the equal-weight S&P 500; the S&P 500 +0.54% against T-bills. AreaTueSince Sun S&P 500+0.54%−0.64%Real Estate−0.95%+0.59%Utilities+0.60%+1.23%Financials−0.36%+0.27%
WedPassed FOMC rate decision; 94 of 100 economists expect a hold at 3.75%-4.00%. Guidance on the December hike every economist polled expects will set the 10-year's direction and the market's liquidity component, at −15 tactical on Friday's close. OutcomeFederal Reserve: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Monetary-policy press release: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement. AreaWedSince Sun S&P 500+0.34%−0.64%Financials+0.49%+0.27%Real Estate−0.69%+0.59%Utilities−0.80%+1.23%
ThuPassed Weekly initial jobless claims. Claims at 194,000 are the strongest support for the soft-landing reading behind the market's improving tactical state. OutcomeLabor Department: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report In the week ending October 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 194,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 194,000 to 195,000. AreaThuSince Sun S&P 500−0.39%−0.64%
Fri Meta's new enterprise terms take effect, shifting AI model liability to customers. A test of whether hyperscaler monetisation moves the AI layer, down 10 to −12 tactical in the week to 23 Oct. BLS: latest major economic indicators Consumer Price Index (CPI) +0.6% in Sep 2026; Unemployment Rate 4.2% in Sep 2026; Payroll Employment +29,000(p) in Sep 2026; Average Hourly Earnings +$0.05(p) in Sep 2026; Producer Price Index - Final Demand +1.3%(p) in Sep 2026; Productivity +1.4% in 2nd Qtr of 2026; U.S. Import Price Index +1.1% in Sep 2026. As published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 2026-10-30.CFTC: Commitments of Traders, report dated Tue 27 Oct CFTC Traders in Financial Futures, S&P 500 consolidated, report dated Tue, Oct 27 (published Fri, Oct 30): leveraged funds net short 20.2% of open interest, from net short 19.1% the week before. It stands in every state. AreaFriSince Sun AI & Hyperscalers−1.67%−4.20%Communication Services−0.51%−6.13%META−1.53%−4.30%

Biggest moves

Sectors Energy led, +2.69% against the equal-weight S&P 500 · Technology lagged, −4.10%

S&P 500

503 names
NameFriSince Sun
FedEx Freight Holding Company FDXF · Industrials+14.91%+14.53%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals REGN · Health Care+13.33%+15.26%
Global Payments GPN · Financials+12.97%+16.93%
GoDaddy GDDY · Technology+10.72%+3.95%
CoStar CSGP · Real Estate+7.21%−11.06%
Reddit RDDT · Communication Services−29.22%−36.41%
Intel INTC · Technology−28.58%−24.38%
Illumina ILMN · Health Care−18.64%−12.41%
Twilio TWLO · Technology−15.24%−21.68%
Sandisk SNDK · Technology−13.47%−7.04%

The chain

72 names
NameFriSince Sun
Sandisk SNDK · Memory & Storage−13.47%−7.04%
Applied Optoelectronics AAOI · Networking & Optics−12.80%+2.28%
Datadog DDOG · AI Software−11.50%−12.75%
Coherent COHR · Networking & Optics−11.34%+0.49%
Astera Labs ALAB · Networking & Optics−10.93%+0.60%

Triggers

Sunday's conditions on Friday's closes
  • Risk-Off AI AI & Hyperscalers structural ≤ −24 · Fri −35 Rests on AMZN slipping below its 200-day (1.3% below at the close) and META slipping below its 200-day (2.7% below at the close) Crossed
  • Risk-Off AI AI Software tactical ≤ −10 · Fri −18 Crossed
  • Risk-Off AI Compute (accelerators) structural trend ≤ 0 · Fri −1 Crossed
  • Risk-On AI Data Centers & Neoclouds structural ≥ −59 · Fri −60 1 pt away closer
  • Risk-Off AI Semiconductors & Equipment structural ≤ −60 · Fri −58 2 pts away further
  • Risk-Off AI Memory & Storage structural ≤ −60 · Fri −58 2 pts away closer
  • Risk-On AI Power tactical ≥ −30 · Fri −32 2 pts away closer

The calls since Sunday

Tactical, against the equal-weight S&P 500

Ahead 7

  • Risk-OffSemiconductors & Equipment−0.50%
  • Risk-OffMemory & Storage−0.08%
  • Risk-OffCommunication Services−6.13%
  • Risk-OffCompute (accelerators)−4.16%
  • Risk-OnEnergy+0.18%
  • Risk-OnHealth Care+2.30%
  • Risk-OnConsumer Staples+0.50%

Behind 4

  • Risk-OffNetworking & Optics+1.23%
  • Risk-OffData Centers & Neoclouds+1.11%
  • Risk-OffPower+2.26%
  • Risk-OffIndustrials+0.87%

No new calls are made during the week.

Next issue

Sunday, November 1

Market opens

Monday, November 2 · 9:30 AM–4:00 PM New York time

Every area

Relative: each area against the equal-weight S&P 500; the S&P 500 against T-bills. Sunday's states as published.
FridaySince SundaySunday's states
AreaReturnRelativeReturnRelativeAbove 50-dayTacticalStructural
S&P 500 vs T-bills−1.77%−1.81%−0.56%−0.64%60% (+2 pp)−8 Balanced−22 Balanced
Energy +1.91%+2.69%+1.00%+0.18%86% (0 pp)+28 Risk-On+16 Balanced
Consumer Staples +1.41%+2.19%+1.31%+0.50%79% (+3 pp)+25 Risk-On+26 Risk-On
Utilities +0.67%+1.46%+2.04%+1.23%84% (+3 pp)+9 Balanced−42 Risk-Off
Health Care +0.45%+1.24%+3.12%+2.30%75% (−10 pp)+26 Risk-On+51 Risk-On
Materials +0.40%+1.19%+2.79%+1.97%75% (+8 pp)+6 Balanced−12 Balanced
Real Estate +0.26%+1.04%+1.41%+0.59%43% (−5 pp)−8 Balanced−17 Balanced
Consumer Discretionary −0.71%+0.08%+2.02%+1.20%62% (+11 pp)+7 Balanced−38 Risk-Off
Financials −0.76%+0.03%+1.09%+0.27%58% (+11 pp)−7 Balanced+7 Balanced
Communication Services −1.29%−0.51%−5.32%−6.13%19% (−10 pp)−35 Risk-Off−42 Risk-Off
Industrials −1.60%−0.82%+1.69%+0.87%60% (+12 pp)−30 Risk-Off−64 Strong Risk-Off
Technology −4.89%−4.10%−2.03%−2.85%39% (−9 pp)−19 Balanced−8 Balanced
AI & Hyperscalers AI−2.45%−1.67%−3.38%−4.20%1 of 5−12 Balanced−20 Balanced
Power AI−4.13%−3.34%+3.08%+2.26%1 of 11−40 Risk-Off−52 Risk-Off
AI Software AI−5.81%−5.02%−9.65%−10.47%1 of 10+2 Balanced+24 Balanced
Semiconductors & Equipment AI−6.73%−5.94%+0.32%−0.50%1 of 13−45 Risk-Off−59 Risk-Off
Data Centers & Neoclouds AI−7.21%−6.42%+1.93%+1.11%0 of 10−45 Risk-Off−61 Strong Risk-Off
Compute (accelerators) AI−7.48%−6.70%−3.34%−4.16%0 of 6−31 Risk-Off−17 Balanced
Memory & Storage AI−8.33%−7.55%+0.74%−0.08%0 of 7−42 Risk-Off−54 Risk-Off
Networking & Optics AI−8.82%−8.04%+2.04%+1.23%0 of 10−47 Risk-Off−70 Strong Risk-Off

Liquidity and rates

  • Credit appetite −0.24% on Friday · +0.09% since Sunday high yield minus investment grade
  • Dollar −0.14% on Friday · +0.14% since Sunday
  • Long bonds +0.43% on Friday · +0.61% since Sunday
  • Treasury curve 10-year 4.94% (−4 bp) · 2-year 4.56% (−5 bp) · 3-month 4.16% (−2 bp) · 2s10s +38 bp par yields at the 2026-10-30 close; since Sunday −6 bp / −13 bp / −6 bp
  • Positioning CFTC Traders in Financial Futures, S&P 500 consolidated, report dated Tue, Oct 27 (published Fri, Oct 30): leveraged funds net short 20.2% of open interest, from net short 19.1% the week before. It stands in every state.
  • The crowd AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, week to Wed, Oct 28 (published Thu, Oct 29): 37.8% bullish, 20.7% neutral, 41.4% bearish — a bull–bear spread of −3.6 points, against AAII's long-run average of +6.0 (37.5% bullish, 31.5% bearish); −8.9 the week before. AAII · displayed, not scored

Sunday's risks against the tape

  • A hawkish hold reverses the yield relief All 100 economists polled expect a December hike; a firm signal could undo the 10-year's move off its peak and the rebound in real estate and utilities. S&P 500 −0.64% since Sunday · Real Estate +0.59% since Sunday · Utilities +1.23% since Sunday · Financials +0.27% since Sunday
  • Data-centre financing stress spreads Distressed CoreWeave bonds and a canceled Nscale site point to funding strain that could reach compute and power, both already at multi-week lows. Data Centers & Neoclouds +1.11% since Sunday · Compute (accelerators) −4.16% since Sunday · Power +2.26% since Sunday · AI & Hyperscalers −4.20% since Sunday
  • Inflation forces the Fed's hand sooner September CPI rose 0.6% and producer prices 1.3%; another hot print would hit a market whose structural state is already −22. S&P 500 −0.64% since Sunday · Consumer Staples +0.50% since Sunday · Consumer Discretionary +1.20% since Sunday
  • A snap-back from record lows in hardware Semis sit at p0 and positioning is a contrarian +19 with leveraged funds net short 19.1%; a short-covering bounce would catch the Risk-Off hardware view. Semiconductors & Equipment −0.50% since Sunday · Networking & Optics +1.23% since Sunday · Memory & Storage −0.08% since Sunday · S&P 500 −0.64% since Sunday

Provisional states on Friday's closes

Provisional: next Sunday's states on Friday's closes beside Sunday's, both before any adjustment. Not published states and not a call; the triggers are read on these.
TacticalStructural
AreaSunFriChangeSunFriChange
S&P 500−8−7+1−22−24−2
Technology−19−27−8−8−14−6
Financials−7+15+22+7+14+7
Health Care+26+45+19+51+53+2
Consumer Discretionary+7+25+18−38−23+15
Consumer Staples+25+44+19+26+31+5
Energy+28+36+8+16+17+1
Industrials−30−9+21−64−52+12
Materials+6+30+24−12−4+8
Utilities+9+30+21−42−29+13
Real Estate−8+13+21−17−11+6
Communication Services−35−48−13−42−54−12
AI & Hyperscalers−12−24−12−20−35−15
Compute (accelerators)−31−32−1−17−19−2
Semiconductors & Equipment−45−42+3−59−58+1
Memory & Storage−42−420−54−58−4
Networking & Optics−47−44+3−70−700
Data Centers & Neoclouds−45−40+5−61−60+1
Power−40−32+8−52−50+2
AI Software+2−18−20+24+8−16

Session 5 since the issue of Sun, Oct 25; closes through Fri, Oct 23 are Sunday's · computed Sun, Nov 1, 5:30 AM · the sources are listed below