After the close

Monday October 26

The S&P 500 rose +0.7% on Monday, and Sunday's risk of a snap-back from record lows in hardware played out: against the equal-weight S&P 500, Networking & Optics gained +3.0%, Memory & Storage +2.5% and Semiconductors & Equipment +1.2%.The AI & Hyperscalers Risk-Off trigger crossed at −27, but it rests on one move: META closed 0.3% below its 200-day average, and without that crossing it would not hold.The market's Risk-On trigger sits 1 point away at −19, as does the Semis Risk-Off trigger, flat at −59.The hardware Risk-Off calls all trail, Networking & Optics behind by 2.96 points, while Communication Services is ahead by 1.92 points.

Sunday's issue of October 25

Since Sunday

S&P 500+0.71% on Monday+0.71%
Triggers crossed0 Risk-On, 1 Risk-Off1 / 18Calls aheadTactical calls2 / 11Nearest open triggerS&P 500, Risk-On · Semiconductors & Equipment, Risk-Off1 pt away

Sunday's watch list

Throughout Semis structural state at −59, one point from Strong Risk-Off. The trigger nearest to firing; a further slip would put semis alongside networking and data centers in Strong Risk-Off. TriggerOn Monday's closes −59, from −59 at Sunday: 1 point from the Risk-Off trigger at −60 (1 at Sunday), unchanged. AreaMonSince Sun Semiconductors & Equipment+1.18%+1.18%Compute (accelerators)+2.20%+2.20%Networking & Optics+2.96%+2.96%
Tue FOMC two-day meeting begins. Rate-sensitive sectors rebounded in the week to 23 Oct on easing yields; the meeting tests that move. AreaMonSince Sun S&P 500+0.70%+0.70%Real Estate+0.19%+0.19%Utilities−0.37%−0.37%Financials−0.13%−0.13%
Wed FOMC rate decision; 94 of 100 economists expect a hold at 3.75%-4.00%. Guidance on the December hike every economist polled expects will set the 10-year's direction and the market's liquidity component, at −15 tactical on Friday's close. AreaMonSince Sun S&P 500+0.70%+0.70%Financials−0.13%−0.13%Real Estate+0.19%+0.19%Utilities−0.37%−0.37%
Thu Weekly initial jobless claims. Claims at 194,000 are the strongest support for the soft-landing reading behind the market's improving tactical state. AreaMonSince Sun S&P 500+0.70%+0.70%
Fri Meta's new enterprise terms take effect, shifting AI model liability to customers. A test of whether hyperscaler monetisation moves the AI layer, down 10 to −12 tactical in the week to 23 Oct. AreaMonSince Sun AI & Hyperscalers−0.55%−0.55%Communication Services−1.92%−1.92%META−1.88%−1.88%

Biggest moves

Sectors Technology led, +1.34% against the equal-weight S&P 500 · Communication Services lagged, −1.92%

S&P 500

503 names
NameMonSince Sun
Lumentum LITE · Technology+8.19%+8.19%
Comfort Systems USA FIX · Industrials+7.18%+7.18%
Everpure P · Technology+6.49%+6.49%
Coherent COHR · Technology+5.83%+5.83%
Synopsys SNPS · Technology+5.62%+5.62%
Fair Isaac FICO · Technology−13.15%−13.15%
DoorDash DASH · Consumer Discretionary−6.10%−6.10%
Charter Comm Inc Del CL A New CHTR · Communication Services−5.92%−5.92%
NVR NVR · Consumer Discretionary−4.28%−4.28%
Reddit RDDT · Communication Services−4.02%−4.02%

The chain

72 names
NameMonSince Sun
Lumentum LITE · Networking & Optics+8.19%+8.19%
Applied Optoelectronics AAOI · Networking & Optics+6.56%+6.56%
Arm Holdings ARM · Compute (accelerators)+6.19%+6.19%
Coherent COHR · Networking & Optics+5.83%+5.83%
TeraWulf WULF · Data Centers & Neoclouds+5.83%+5.83%
Amkor Technology AMKR · Semiconductors & Equipment−6.34%−6.34%
Celestica CLS · Networking & Optics−5.14%−5.14%
SoundHound AI SOUN · AI Software−4.29%−4.29%
Centrus Energy LEU · Power−3.91%−3.91%
Nebius Group N.V. Class A NBIS · Data Centers & Neoclouds−3.45%−3.45%

Triggers

Sunday's conditions on Monday's closes
  • Risk-Off AI AI & Hyperscalers structural ≤ −24 · Mon −27 Rests on META slipping below its 200-day (0.3% below at the close) Crossed
  • Risk-On Market S&P 500 structural ≥ −18 · Mon −19 1 pt away closer
  • Risk-Off AI Semiconductors & Equipment structural ≤ −60 · Mon −59 1 pt away unchanged
  • Risk-On AI Data Centers & Neoclouds structural ≥ −59 · Mon −61 2 pts away unchanged
  • Risk-On AI AI Software structural ≥ +25 · Mon +23 2 pts away further

The calls since Sunday

Tactical, against the equal-weight S&P 500

Ahead 2

  • Risk-OffCommunication Services−1.92%
  • Risk-OnEnergy+0.10%

Behind 9

  • Risk-OffNetworking & Optics+2.96%
  • Risk-OffSemiconductors & Equipment+1.18%
  • Risk-OffData Centers & Neoclouds+0.61%
  • Risk-OffMemory & Storage+2.46%
  • Risk-OffPower+0.73%
  • Risk-OffCompute (accelerators)+2.20%
  • Risk-OffIndustrials+1.08%
  • Risk-OnHealth Care−0.35%
  • Risk-OnConsumer Staples−0.69%

No new calls are made during the week.

Next issue

Sunday, November 1

Market opens

Tuesday, October 27 · 9:30 AM–4:00 PM New York time

Every area

Relative: each area against the equal-weight S&P 500; the S&P 500 against T-bills. Sunday's states as published.
MondaySince SundaySunday's states
AreaReturnRelativeReturnRelativeAbove 50-dayTacticalStructural
S&P 500 vs T-bills+0.71%+0.70%+0.71%+0.70%60% (+1 pp)−8 Balanced−22 Balanced
Technology +1.69%+1.34%+1.69%+1.34%56% (+8 pp)−19 Balanced−8 Balanced
Industrials +1.42%+1.08%+1.42%+1.08%54% (+6 pp)−30 Risk-Off−64 Strong Risk-Off
Consumer Discretionary +1.03%+0.68%+1.03%+0.68%55% (+4 pp)+7 Balanced−38 Risk-Off
Real Estate +0.54%+0.19%+0.54%+0.19%41% (−7 pp)−8 Balanced−17 Balanced
Energy +0.45%+0.10%+0.45%+0.10%86% (0 pp)+28 Risk-On+16 Balanced
Financials +0.21%−0.13%+0.21%−0.13%46% (−1 pp)−7 Balanced+7 Balanced
Materials +0.14%−0.21%+0.14%−0.21%67% (0 pp)+6 Balanced−12 Balanced
Health Care 0.00%−0.35%0.00%−0.35%85% (0 pp)+26 Risk-On+51 Risk-On
Utilities −0.02%−0.37%−0.02%−0.37%81% (0 pp)+9 Balanced−42 Risk-Off
Consumer Staples −0.34%−0.69%−0.34%−0.69%76% (0 pp)+25 Risk-On+26 Risk-On
Communication Services −1.57%−1.92%−1.57%−1.92%14% (−14 pp)−35 Risk-Off−42 Risk-Off
Networking & Optics AI+3.31%+2.96%+3.31%+2.96%0 of 10−47 Risk-Off−70 Strong Risk-Off
Memory & Storage AI+2.81%+2.46%+2.81%+2.46%1 of 7−42 Risk-Off−54 Risk-Off
Compute (accelerators) AI+2.54%+2.20%+2.54%+2.20%0 of 6−31 Risk-Off−17 Balanced
Semiconductors & Equipment AI+1.53%+1.18%+1.53%+1.18%0 of 13−45 Risk-Off−59 Risk-Off
AI Software AI+1.28%+0.93%+1.28%+0.93%7 of 10+2 Balanced+24 Balanced
Power AI+1.08%+0.73%+1.08%+0.73%1 of 11−40 Risk-Off−52 Risk-Off
Data Centers & Neoclouds AI+0.96%+0.61%+0.96%+0.61%0 of 10−45 Risk-Off−61 Strong Risk-Off
AI & Hyperscalers AI−0.21%−0.55%−0.21%−0.55%1 of 5−12 Balanced−20 Balanced

Liquidity and rates

  • Credit appetite +0.03% on Monday · +0.03% since Sunday high yield minus investment grade
  • Dollar +0.17% on Monday · +0.17% since Sunday
  • Long bonds +0.42% on Monday · +0.42% since Sunday
  • Treasury curve 10-year 5.00% (0 bp) · 2-year 4.68% (−1 bp) · 3-month 4.22% (0 bp) · 2s10s +32 bp par yields at the 2026-10-26 close; since Sunday 0 bp / −1 bp / 0 bp
  • Positioning CFTC Traders in Financial Futures, S&P 500 consolidated, report dated Tue, Oct 20 (published Fri, Oct 23): leveraged funds net short 19.1% of open interest, from net short 21.1% the week before. It stands in every state.
  • The crowd AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, week to Wed, Oct 21 (published Thu, Oct 22): 36.9% bullish, 17.3% neutral, 45.8% bearish — a bull–bear spread of −8.9 points, against AAII's long-run average of +6.0 (37.5% bullish, 31.5% bearish); −2.9 the week before. AAII · displayed, not scored

Sunday's risks against the tape

  • A hawkish hold reverses the yield relief All 100 economists polled expect a December hike; a firm signal could undo the 10-year's move off its peak and the rebound in real estate and utilities. S&P 500 +0.70% since Sunday · Real Estate +0.19% since Sunday · Utilities −0.37% since Sunday · Financials −0.13% since Sunday
  • Data-centre financing stress spreads Distressed CoreWeave bonds and a canceled Nscale site point to funding strain that could reach compute and power, both already at multi-week lows. Data Centers & Neoclouds +0.61% since Sunday · Compute (accelerators) +2.20% since Sunday · Power +0.73% since Sunday · AI & Hyperscalers −0.55% since Sunday
  • Inflation forces the Fed's hand sooner September CPI rose 0.6% and producer prices 1.3%; another hot print would hit a market whose structural state is already −22. S&P 500 +0.70% since Sunday · Consumer Staples −0.69% since Sunday · Consumer Discretionary +0.68% since Sunday
  • A snap-back from record lows in hardware Semis sit at p0 and positioning is a contrarian +19 with leveraged funds net short 19.1%; a short-covering bounce would catch the Risk-Off hardware view. Semiconductors & Equipment +1.18% since Sunday · Networking & Optics +2.96% since Sunday · Memory & Storage +2.46% since Sunday · S&P 500 +0.70% since Sunday

Provisional states on Monday's closes

Provisional: next Sunday's states on Monday's closes beside Sunday's, both before any adjustment. Not published states and not a call; the triggers are read on these.
TacticalStructural
AreaSunMonChangeSunMonChange
S&P 500−8−5+3−22−19+3
Technology−19−12+7−8−2+6
Financials−7−8−1+7+6−1
Health Care+26+24−2+51+50−1
Consumer Discretionary+7+11+4−38−32+6
Consumer Staples+25+22−3+26+260
Energy+28+30+2+16+14−2
Industrials−30−23+7−64−59+5
Materials+6+5−1−12−13−1
Utilities+9+90−42−420
Real Estate−8−7+1−17−14+3
Communication Services−35−47−12−42−49−7
AI & Hyperscalers−12−14−2−20−27−7
Compute (accelerators)−31−28+3−17−14+3
Semiconductors & Equipment−45−42+3−59−590
Memory & Storage−42−39+3−54−55−1
Networking & Optics−47−44+3−70−69+1
Data Centers & Neoclouds−45−44+1−61−610
Power−40−38+2−52−520
AI Software+2+9+7+24+23−1

Session 1 since the issue of Sun, Oct 25; closes through Fri, Oct 23 are Sunday's · computed Sun, Nov 1, 5:32 AM · the sources are listed below

  • Prices Massive: split-adjusted daily closes through Monday, October 26, 503 S&P 500 constituents and every area's members
  • Treasury yields U.S. Treasury: daily par yield curve, Mon, Oct 26
  • Positioning CFTC: Traders in Financial Futures, S&P 500 consolidated, report dated Tue, Oct 20
  • The crowd AAII: Investor Sentiment Survey of Wed, Oct 21; displayed, not scored
  • Market hours NYSE: holidays and early closes, computed from the exchange's rules
  • The issue Sunday's issue of October 25: the states, the triggers and the watch list this page grades
  • Closes re-read CPT's unchanged close, asked again of the provider and confirmed; HBAN's unchanged close, asked again of the provider and confirmed; KR's unchanged close, asked again of the provider and confirmed; XLV's unchanged close, asked again of the provider and confirmed
  • The comment Drafted by a model from this document; every figure checked against it before it is shown.