After the close

Monday November 2

Monday went hard against the layers named for Cipher Digital and Fabrinet: Data Centers & Neoclouds −6.79% and Networking & Optics −8.85% against the equal-weight S&P 500, with CIFR −5.9% and FN −3.85%.Sunday's risk that capex funding strain spreads was in play, with AI & Hyperscalers −3.0% and Power −4.1% on the same measure.Memory's structural state reached −62, crossing into Strong Risk-Off.The Compute and AI & Hyperscalers Risk-Off triggers also crossed, but each rests on one move: NVDA, MRVL and SMCI closed below their 200-day averages, and MSFT below its 50-day.The networking Risk-Off call leads by 8.85 points; energy's Risk-On call trails by 4.72 points.

Sunday's issue of November 1

Since Sunday

S&P 500−0.48% on Monday−0.48%
Triggers crossed0 Risk-On, 3 Risk-Off3 / 18Calls aheadTactical calls11 / 14Nearest open triggerAI Software, Risk-Off1 pt away

Sunday's watch list

Mon Cipher Digital Q3 results before the open; Fabrinet fiscal Q1 results after the close Tests data centers at the Strong Risk-Off line and networking's tactical read of −44. Census Bureau: Construction Spending Total construction spending for September 2026 ($2,186.1 billion) was 1.9 percent (+/- 0.7 percent) below the revised August 2026 ($2,227.4 billion) estimate. AreaMonSince Sun Data Centers & Neoclouds−6.79%−6.79%Networking & Optics−8.85%−8.85%CIFR−5.90%−5.90%FN−3.85%−3.85%
Tue Talen Energy Q3 results at 8:00 AM ET; Super Micro Computer and Astera Labs results after the close Power sits two points short of its old −30 line; compute is at a 79-week tactical low. AreaMonSince Sun Power−4.07%−4.07%Compute (accelerators)−6.56%−6.56%Networking & Optics−8.85%−8.85%TLN−2.95%−2.95%SMCI−7.62%−7.62%ALAB−11.22%−11.22%
Tue Federal Election Day A policy event for a market whose rotation already favors health care and defensives. AreaMonSince Sun S&P 500−0.16%−0.16%Health Care−0.91%−0.91%Financials+1.09%+1.09%
Wed Datadog Q3 results before the open; Camtek Q3 results at 9:00 AM ET; ARM Holdings fiscal Q2 results after the close Datadog reports into AI Software's 20-point tactical fall; Camtek and ARM test semis and compute. AreaMonSince Sun AI Software−4.27%−4.27%Semiconductors & Equipment−4.50%−4.50%Compute (accelerators)−6.56%−6.56%DDOG−8.15%−8.15%CAMT−7.22%−7.22%ARM−4.46%−4.46%
Wed Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement Sets supply at the long end with the 10-year at 4.94% and structural liquidity at −19. AreaMonSince Sun S&P 500−0.16%−0.16%Financials+1.09%+1.09%Real Estate+0.32%+0.32%Utilities−0.21%−0.21%
Thu Core Scientific and MACOM before the open; Silicon Motion, Applied Optoelectronics, SoundHound AI and NuScale Power results A dense day across five layers, including memory two points short of its old Strong Risk-Off line. AreaMonSince Sun Data Centers & Neoclouds−6.79%−6.79%Networking & Optics−8.85%−8.85%Memory & Storage−7.26%−7.26%AI Software−4.27%−4.27%Power−4.07%−4.07%CORZ−5.62%−5.62%MTSI−5.21%−5.21%SIMO−9.94%−9.94%AAOI−9.49%−9.49%SOUN−3.08%−3.08%SMR−4.80%−4.80%
Fri Oklo Q3 results at 8:30 AM ET; Vistra Q3 results at 10:00 AM ET Two Power members report as the layer posts its best tactical week in the stack, +8. AreaMonSince Sun Power−4.07%−4.07%OKLO−6.85%−6.85%VST−2.72%−2.72%
Fri Employment Situation Report for October September payrolls rose only 29,000 with unemployment at 4.2%; with two FOMC hike dissents, the print bears on yields and the defensive rotation. AreaMonSince Sun S&P 500−0.16%−0.16%Financials+1.09%+1.09%Utilities−0.21%−0.21%Real Estate+0.32%+0.32%

Biggest moves

Sectors Consumer Discretionary led, +1.64% against the equal-weight S&P 500 · Energy lagged, −4.72%

S&P 500

502 names
NameMonSince Sun
Idexx Laboratories IDXX · Health Care+21.85%+21.85%
Howmet Aerospace HWM · Industrials+6.91%+6.91%
Pentair PNR · Industrials+6.49%+6.49%
CRH CRH · Materials+6.36%+6.36%
DoorDash DASH · Consumer Discretionary+6.19%+6.19%
Lumentum LITE · Technology−18.59%−18.59%
Marvell Technology MRVL · Technology−12.72%−12.72%
Ciena CIEN · Technology−11.34%−11.34%
Everpure P · Technology−10.40%−10.40%
Intel INTC · Technology−8.80%−8.80%

The chain

72 names
NameMonSince Sun
Amazon.Com AMZN · AI & Hyperscalers+2.20%+2.20%
SERVICENOW NOW · AI Software+0.85%+0.85%
GE Vernova GEV · Power+0.51%+0.51%
Applovin APP · AI Software+0.15%+0.15%
Quanta Services PWR · Power+0.07%+0.07%
Lumentum LITE · Networking & Optics−18.59%−18.59%
Marvell Technology MRVL · Compute (accelerators)−12.72%−12.72%
Ciena CIEN · Networking & Optics−11.34%−11.34%
Astera Labs ALAB · Networking & Optics−11.22%−11.22%
Silicon Motion Technology SIMO · Memory & Storage−9.94%−9.94%

Triggers

Sunday's conditions on Monday's closes
  • Risk-Off AI Compute (accelerators) structural ≤ −30 · Mon −37 Rests on NVDA slipping below its 200-day (1.2% below at the close) and MRVL slipping below its 200-day (6.7% below at the close) and SMCI slipping below its 200-day (6.8% below at the close) Crossed
  • Risk-Off AI AI & Hyperscalers tactical ≤ −30 · Mon −33 Rests on MSFT slipping below its 50-day (1.2% below at the close) Crossed
  • Risk-Off AI Memory & Storage structural ≤ −62 · Mon −62 Crossed
  • Risk-Off AI AI Software structural ≤ 0 · Mon +1 1 pt away closer
  • Risk-Off AI Semiconductors & Equipment structural ≤ −63 · Mon −61 2 pts away closer
  • Risk-Off AI Networking & Optics tactical ≤ −55 · Mon −51 4 pts away closer
  • Risk-Off AI Data Centers & Neoclouds tactical ≤ −50 · Mon −45 5 pts away closer

The calls since Sunday

Tactical, against the equal-weight S&P 500

Ahead 11

  • Risk-OffCommunication Services−0.40%
  • Risk-OnConsumer Staples+0.81%
  • Risk-OffNetworking & Optics−8.85%
  • Risk-OffSemiconductors & Equipment−4.50%
  • Risk-OffMemory & Storage−7.26%
  • Risk-OffData Centers & Neoclouds−6.79%
  • Risk-OffCompute (accelerators)−6.56%
  • Risk-OffPower−4.07%
  • Risk-OnMaterials+1.00%
  • Risk-OffTechnology−3.71%
  • Risk-OnConsumer Discretionary+1.64%

Behind 3

  • Risk-OnHealth Care−0.91%
  • Risk-OnEnergy−4.72%
  • Risk-OnUtilities−0.21%

No new calls are made during the week.

Next issue

Sunday, November 8

Market opens

Tuesday, November 3 · 9:30 AM–4:00 PM New York time

Every area

Relative: each area against the equal-weight S&P 500; the S&P 500 against T-bills. Sunday's states as published.
MondaySince SundaySunday's states
AreaReturnRelativeReturnRelativeAbove 50-dayTacticalStructural
S&P 500 vs T-bills−0.48%−0.16%−0.48%−0.16%67% (+7 pp)−7 Balanced−24 Balanced
Consumer Discretionary +2.41%+1.64%+2.41%+1.64%74% (+13 pp)+25 Risk-On−23 Balanced
Financials +1.86%+1.09%+1.86%+1.09%71% (+13 pp)+15 Balanced+14 Balanced
Materials +1.76%+1.00%+1.76%+1.00%75% (0 pp)+30 Risk-On−4 Balanced
Consumer Staples +1.58%+0.81%+1.58%+0.81%84% (+6 pp)+44 Risk-On+31 Risk-On
Industrials +1.38%+0.61%+1.38%+0.61%66% (+6 pp)−9 Balanced−52 Risk-Off
Real Estate +1.09%+0.32%+1.09%+0.32%67% (+23 pp)+13 Balanced−11 Balanced
Utilities +0.55%−0.21%+0.55%−0.21%87% (+3 pp)+30 Risk-On−29 Risk-Off
Communication Services +0.36%−0.40%+0.36%−0.40%29% (+10 pp)−48 Risk-Off−54 Risk-Off
Health Care −0.15%−0.91%−0.15%−0.91%87% (+12 pp)+45 Risk-On+53 Risk-On
Technology −2.95%−3.71%−2.95%−3.71%36% (−3 pp)−27 Risk-Off−14 Balanced
Energy −3.96%−4.72%−3.96%−4.72%62% (−24 pp)+36 Risk-On+17 Balanced
AI & Hyperscalers AI−2.21%−2.97%−2.21%−2.97%0 of 5−24 Balanced−35 Risk-Off
Power AI−3.30%−4.07%−3.30%−4.07%1 of 11−32 Risk-Off−50 Risk-Off
AI Software AI−3.50%−4.27%−3.50%−4.27%0 of 10−18 Balanced+8 Balanced
Semiconductors & Equipment AI−3.74%−4.50%−3.74%−4.50%1 of 13−42 Risk-Off−58 Risk-Off
Compute (accelerators) AI−5.79%−6.56%−5.79%−6.56%0 of 6−32 Risk-Off−19 Balanced
Data Centers & Neoclouds AI−6.03%−6.79%−6.03%−6.79%0 of 10−40 Risk-Off−60 Strong Risk-Off
Memory & Storage AI−6.49%−7.26%−6.49%−7.26%0 of 7−42 Risk-Off−58 Risk-Off
Networking & Optics AI−8.08%−8.85%−8.08%−8.85%0 of 10−44 Risk-Off−70 Strong Risk-Off

Liquidity and rates

  • Credit appetite −0.16% on Monday · −0.16% since Sunday high yield minus investment grade
  • Dollar −0.14% on Monday · −0.14% since Sunday
  • Long bonds −0.13% on Monday · −0.13% since Sunday
  • Treasury curve 10-year 4.91% (−3 bp) · 2-year 4.59% (+3 bp) · 3-month 4.21% (+5 bp) · 2s10s +32 bp par yields at the 2026-11-02 close; since Sunday −3 bp / +3 bp / +5 bp
  • Positioning CFTC Traders in Financial Futures, S&P 500 consolidated, report dated Tue, Oct 27 (published Fri, Oct 30): leveraged funds net short 20.2% of open interest, from net short 19.1% the week before. It stands in every state.
  • The crowd AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, week to Wed, Oct 28 (published Thu, Oct 29): 37.8% bullish, 20.7% neutral, 41.4% bearish — a bull–bear spread of −3.6 points, against AAII's long-run average of +6.0 (37.5% bullish, 31.5% bearish); −8.9 the week before. AAII · displayed, not scored

Sunday's risks against the tape

  • A short-covering rally in AI hardware Tactical reads already turned up in power, data centers, semis and networking, and positioning reads +30; a run of beats in the week ahead could lift layers with Risk-Off reads sharply. Semiconductors & Equipment −4.50% since Sunday · Memory & Storage −7.26% since Sunday · Networking & Optics −8.85% since Sunday · Data Centers & Neoclouds −6.79% since Sunday · Power −4.07% since Sunday · Compute (accelerators) −6.56% since Sunday
  • The hike case returns to long yields Two FOMC members voted for a hike and the 10-year closed at 4.94%; a hot payrolls print would hit rate-sensitive sectors and long-duration software. Utilities −0.21% since Sunday · Real Estate +0.32% since Sunday · AI Software −4.27% since Sunday
  • The defensive bid reverses Health care, staples and utilities sit at p91 to p95 of their tactical history; a growth-led rebound in technology would pull money back out. Health Care −0.91% since Sunday · Consumer Staples +0.81% since Sunday · Utilities −0.21% since Sunday
  • Capex funding strain spreads Meta is funding capex partly with equity; further raises across the spenders would extend the AI structural break into their suppliers. AI & Hyperscalers −2.97% since Sunday · Data Centers & Neoclouds −6.79% since Sunday · Power −4.07% since Sunday

Provisional states on Monday's closes

Provisional: next Sunday's states on Monday's closes beside Sunday's, both before any adjustment. Not published states and not a call; the triggers are read on these.
TacticalStructural
AreaSunMonChangeSunMonChange
S&P 500−7−9−2−24−21+3
Technology−27−36−9−14−28−14
Financials+15+26+11+14+30+16
Health Care+45+49+4+53+55+2
Consumer Discretionary+25+37+12−23−7+16
Consumer Staples+44+51+7+31+34+3
Energy+36+20−16+17+5−12
Industrials−9−1+8−52−40+12
Materials+30+34+4−4+4+8
Utilities+30+35+5−29−24+5
Real Estate+13+25+12−11−7+4
Communication Services−48−43+5−54−53+1
AI & Hyperscalers−24−33−9−35−33+2
Compute (accelerators)−32−40−8−19−37−18
Semiconductors & Equipment−42−47−5−58−61−3
Memory & Storage−42−47−5−58−62−4
Networking & Optics−44−51−7−70−73−3
Data Centers & Neoclouds−40−45−5−60−62−2
Power−32−36−4−50−51−1
AI Software−18−26−8+8+1−7

Session 1 since the issue of Sun, Nov 1; closes through Fri, Oct 30 are Sunday's · computed Mon, Nov 2, 5:30 PM · the sources are listed below

  • Prices Massive: split-adjusted daily closes through Monday, November 2, 503 S&P 500 constituents and every area's members
  • Treasury yields U.S. Treasury: daily par yield curve, Mon, Nov 2
  • Positioning CFTC: Traders in Financial Futures, S&P 500 consolidated, report dated Tue, Oct 27
  • The crowd AAII: Investor Sentiment Survey of Wed, Oct 28; displayed, not scored
  • Release Census Bureau: Construction Spending census.gov · Mon, Nov 2
  • Market hours NYSE: holidays and early closes, computed from the exchange's rules
  • The issue Sunday's issue of November 1: the states, the triggers and the watch list this page grades
  • Closes re-read no close on the day needed a second read
  • The comment Drafted by a model from this document; every figure checked against it before it is shown.